Text of Letter:

October 15, 2009

His Excellency Deval L. Patrick, Governor
The House Committee on Ways and Means
The Senate Committee on Ways and Means
The Joint Committee on Revenue

In accordance with the Massachusetts General Laws, Chapter 29, Section 5B, here is the Executive Office for Administration and Finance's estimate regarding available budgeted fund revenue for Fiscal Year 2010. Based on available data on revenues and economic trends, the revised tax revenue forecast for Fiscal Year 2010 is $18.279 billion. This represents a reduction of $600 million from the revenue estimate assumed in the fiscal year 2010 General Appropriations Act, which was based on the May 2009 consensus revenue estimate adjusted for subsequent tax law changes.

Due to the disparity between recent estimates of a national economic recovery and year-to-date tax collections, we have not yet developed a tax revenue estimate for Fiscal Year 2011. Historically, state revenue growth lags economic recoveries. The benefit of a few more months of tax collection data and the upcoming Fiscal Year 2011 consensus revenue hearing that will take place before the end of calendar year 2009, should provide greater clarity with respect to the direction of the economy and anticipated tax revenues in Fiscal Year 2011.

In accord with previously released figures, the revenue estimates exclude amounts earmarked for the Convention Center, but include off-budget allocations to MBTA forward funding, pension obligations, and school building assistance payments. The estimates also exclude new cigarette tax revenues dedicated to the off-budget Commonwealth Care Trust Fund.

Detailed revenue and fund tables are attached.

Sincerely,

Jay Gonzalez
Secretary




FY2009 Tax Actual Collections and A&F 10/15/2009 FY2010 Tax Revenue Estimates
All FundsGeneral FundHighway FundSMART** FundMBTAOther Funds
SourceFY09 Actual (Prelim.)FY10FY09 ActualFY10FY09 ActualFY10FY09 ActualFY10FY09 ActualFY10FY09 ActualFY10
Alcohol
Bev.
71.871.071.871.0--------
Cigar-
ettes
456.8477.0456.8477.0--------
Corpor-
ations
1,548.61,447.31,548.61,447.3--------
Deeds105.598.3105.598.3--------
Estate
Inher.
259.7190.8259.7190.8--------
Financial
Institu-
tions
242.6209.3242.6209.3--------
Income10,583.710,177.810,583.710,177.8--------
Insur.335.6327.8335.6327.8--------
Motor
Fuels
654.0640.432.6-620.5639.5----0.90.9
Public
Utils.
(1.7)16.1(1.7)16.1--------
Room
Occupancy
109.5100.071.165.0------38.335.0
Sales-
Regular
2,799.73,216.91,529.62,051.1--607.1505.8663.0659.9--
Sales-
Meals
629.6736.7629.6736.7--------
Sales-
Mot.Veh.
439.3522.1240.0332.9--95.282.1104.0107.1--
Misc.3.327.03.327.0--------
UI
Surchar-
ges
21.020.3--------21.020.3
Total
Taxes
18,259.318,278.716,109.216,228.1620.5639.5702.3587.9767.1767.160.256.2
* All figures include non-restricted and restricted budgeted revenues only, unless otherwise stated. ** School Modernization and Reconstruction Trust.