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- American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009
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- Aggregate FY10-14 Capital Investment Plan
- Capital Investments by Investment Category
- Appendix A - Debt Affordabiity Analysis
- Appendix B - Bond Bills
- Appendix C - Project Listing (xls)
- Appendix D - Project Descriptions (pdf)
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Revenue Projections
The debt affordability analysis is based on projections of budgeted revenue that will be available to support debt service and other budgetary needs. The budgeted revenue projection for fiscal year 2010 is based on the consensus tax revenue estimate as determined by the Secretary of Administration and Finance and the chairs of the House and Senate Committees on Ways and Means. On May 6, 2009, the consensus tax revenue estimate for fiscal year 2010 was revised downward by $1.5 billion, from $19.530 billion to $17.989 billion. In addition to the consensus revenue, fiscal year 2010 budgeted revenues include $889.7 million in tax initiatives that were a part of the adopted fiscal year 2010 budget. $759 million of this amount is attributable to an increase in the sales tax which went into effect August 1, 2009. The annualized amount of the increase in the sales tax is $900 million, and the difference of $141 million was included in the fiscal year 2011 budgeted revenue estimate for purposes of this analysis. For purposes of projecting budgeted revenue in future fiscal years, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in budgeted revenues from fiscal years 2000 through 2010 of 2.66% was applied to fiscal year 2011 revenues and to each year thereafter. This is consistent with past practice of applying the lesser of (a) the CAGR of historical budgeted revenues, which is 2.66%; and (b) 3%.
To ensure consistency, the budgeted revenue projection for fiscal year 2010 takes into account the same revenues included in the actual budgetary revenue amounts reported in the audited statutory basis financial statements. Specifically, budgeted revenue includes all Commonwealth taxes and other revenues available to pay Commonwealth operating expenses, including debt service, pensions and other budgetary obligations. These budgeted revenue amounts do not include off-budget revenues or tax or toll revenues dedicated to the Massachusetts Turnpike Authority, Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority, the Massachusetts School Building Authority, and the Massachusetts Convention Center Authority (the debt service obligations of these entities payable from such dedicated revenues have also been excluded from the analysis) or inter-fund transfers from budgeted funds, such as the Stabilization Fund. Although the fiscal year 2009, 2010 and 2011 budgets have relied and will rely on a significant amount of additional federal funding pursuant to the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA), these are one-time, non-recurring revenues similar in nature to Stabilization Funds; consequently, these federal ARRA revenues have not been included in the budgeted revenue estimates used for purposes of this debt affordability analysis.
Actual and projected budgeted revenues are shown in the table below. The fiscal year 2009 number is an estimate and will not be finalized until October 31, 2009. The fiscal year 2010-2014 budgeted revenue amounts are projections, as described above.
| Fiscal Year | Budgeted Revenues (Excluding ARRA Revenues) | Annual Growth Rate | Compound Annual Growth Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 22,587,100 | n/a | 2.66% |
| 2001 | 22,860,700 | 1.21% | |
| 2002 | 21,174,800 | -7.37% | |
| 2003 | 21,987,200 | 3.84% | |
| 2004 | 23,988,400 | 9.10% | |
| 2005 | 24,373,400 | 1.60% | |
| 2006 | 26,305,600 | 7.93% | |
| 2007 | 28,615,900 | 8.78% | |
| 2008 | 30,313,200 | 5.93% | |
| 2009 | 29,609,500 | -2.32% | |
| 2010 | 29,372,700 | -0.80% | Projections |
| 2011 | 30,301,302 | 2.66% | |
| 2012 | 31,107,317 | 2.66% | |
| 2013 | 31,934,771 | 2.66% | |
| 2014 | 32,784,236 | 2.66% |
As a starting point for the analysis of future debt capacity, the following table shows existing debt service and contract assistance payment obligations in fiscal year 2009 and in each of the next five fiscal years as a percentage of the budgeted revenue projection for each of those fiscal years.
| Fiscal Year | Existing Direct Debt Service | Existing Contract Assistance | Total Existing Obligations | Projected Budgeted Revenue | Debt Service as % of Budgeted Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | 1,923,807 | 121,228 | 2,044,268 | 29,609,500 | 6.90% |
| 2010 | 1,946,990 | 222,311 | 2,169,301 | 29,372,700 | 7.39% |
| 2011 | 1,788,904 | 224,556 | 2,013,460 | 30,301,302 | 6.64% |
| 2012 | 1,804,883 | 220,419 | 2,025,302 | 31,107,317 | 6.51% |
| 2013 | 1,637,589 | 216,222 | 1,853,811 | 31,934,771 | 5.80% |
| 2014 | 1,569,380 | 216,303 | 1,785,683 | 32,784,236 | 5.45% |
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