The Official Website of the Office of Geographic and Environmental Information (MassGIS)

 
  Massachusetts Geographic Information Council (MGIC)
 
May 5, 1998 - Boston, MA

"GROWTH MANAGEMENT MODELING AND ANALYSIS"

The following sections provide brief summaries, in outline form, of the main points presented by the listed speakers at the May 5, 1998 meeting of the Massachusetts Geographic Information Council (MGIC). 

Moderator - Slater Anderson of Metropolitan Area Planning Council

Presentation by Jim Scace, GIS Specialist, Pioneer Valley Planning Commission
"Valley Vision - Regional Land Use Plan For the Pioneer Valley Region, Massachusetts"

Jim presented PVPC's vector-based GIS Regional Land Suitability Analysis and Amit Prothi, a planner for PVPC, discussed how the resulting data are being integrated into Valley Vision.  Satellite Growth Centers, used to minimize sprawl and maximize protected farmland and wildlife habitat, are the primary focus of the PVPC's "Valley Vision" Regional Land Use Plan.  The Land Use Plan is presently being implemented in Amherst, Belchertown, Westfield, and Westhampton. 

The Pioneer Valley region consists of 43 towns in Hampden and Hampshire counties.
The PVPC District:
Communities:
Agawam, Amherst, Belchertown, Blandford, Brimfield, Chester, Chesterfield, Chicopee, Cummington, East Longmeadow, Easthampton, Goshen, Granby, Granville, Hadley, Hampden, Hatfield, Holland, Holyoke, Huntington, Longmeadow, Ludlow, Middlefield, Monson, Montgomery, Northampton, Palmer, Pelham, Plainfield, Russell, South Hadley, Southampton, Southwick, Springfield, Tolland, Wales, Ware, West Springfield, Westfield, Westhampton, Wilbraham, Williamsburg, Worthington
Reasons for Valley Vision
Regionwide, 34,000 acres of land were developed for residential use between 1952-85, a 71% increase.
37,000 more acres of land will be developed by 2020 if current trends continue.
Belchertown, one of the fastest growing towns in the region, had its population increase by 40% from 1970-80.
Spreading commercial strip developments are choking the region’s key highways.
Connecticut River Valley is listed as one of the 20 most endangered agricultural regions in the U.S. by American Farmland Trust. 

What is Valley Vision ?
Valley Vision is the Regional Land Use Plan for 43 Towns and Cities in the Pioneer Valley. It is designed to help communities plan effectively, to control sprawling growth and promote a more compact development pattern in order to preserve the region’s quality of life. The Plan is intended to provide meaningful guidance to communities in developing regionally-consistent local master plans and zoning bylaws and in making other land use and growth decisions. The plan includes strategies that provide detailed guidance on how to put Valley Vision into action. 

Pioneer Valley Planning Commission Geographic Information System provided analysis with the following hardware and software:

  • 1 Sun Sparc10 52 with 9GB disk space 128 MB Ram
  • 1 Sun SparcLX with 2GB disk space and 32MB Ram
  • Hitachi Digitizer
  • HP 650C Inkjet
  • Running ArcInfo 7.1.1
  • All networked with 10base T
Valley Vision GIS Analysis
  • Data used:
    • Natural Heritage Rare & Endangered
    • Water Protection Zone 1, Zone II & Overlay Districts
    • Industrial Parks & Economic Opportunity Areas (EOA)
    • Recreational & Protected Open Space
    • Steep Slopes
    • 1/4 to 1/2 mile buffers of Major Intersections & Business Districts
    • Services: 1/4 Mile from Transit, Water, Sewer, Town Centers
    • Municipal Zoning
    • Exisitng Land Use (1985)
    • 200 ft Buffers of Rivers
    • 100 ft Buffers of Wetlands
    • Community Base Map

      •  
  • Processing took 4.5 days or 108 hours
  • Then, the final raw data was categorized, dissolved & mapped
  • At this point, each community had opportunity for comment.  Some communities were edited and/or rerun.  16 communities took the opportunity to update various features, i.e. recent development, additional EOA, newly protected lands…
Then The Land Use Planning Department Developed “TWELVE RECOMMENDED STRATEGIES TO IMPLEMENT VALLEY VISION”
 
  1. Encourage Traditional Neighborhood Developments  (TNDs)
    • Adopt:
      • TND Residential Zoning - for smaller lots with modest setbacks clustered on commons or open space
      • TND Commercial Zoning - for Main Street style shopping districts
      • TND Subdivision Regulations - for narrower, gridded streets with sidewalks and shade trees

        •  
  2. Promote Compact Development near Existing Town Centers and in Designated New Growth Centers
    • Combine residential, retail, office, institutional uses in clusters
    • Provide Density-Based Zoning Incentives - smaller lots sizes and increased heights
    • Lower Incentives for areas outside existing Town Centers

      •  
  3. Create Incentives for Downtown Revitalization
    • Promote Mixed Uses, Infill, Specialty Businesses and Downtown Residential Uses
    • ImplementBusiness Improvement Districts, Economic Target Areas or Main Street Programs
    • Incorporate Design, Landscape, Streetscape Standards
    • Improve Physical Infrastructure, Downtown Access, Streetscapes, Riverfronts and  Urban Greenspace
    • Channel Commercial Growth, Government and Private Institutions to Downtowns
    • Make Downtowns Safe, Comfortable and Attractive

      •  
  4. Develop Incentives for Open Space Community or Cluster Development
    • Adopt Zoning Ordinances to Promote Cluster Development
    • Allow By-right Cluster Development

      •  
  5. Improve Neighborhood Quality, Housing Opportunities and Promote Infill
    • Allow Accessory or “In-Law” Apartments
    • Encourage Limited Commercial and Convenience Services in Neighborhoods
    • Adopt Inclusionary Zoning for Affordable Housing
    • Adopt Elderly and Handicapped Congregate Housing Bylaws

      •  
  6. Redevelop Brownfields
    • Prioritize Potentially Developable Abandoned and Contaminated Sites
    • Market Brownfields Sites for Redevelopment
    • Create Public-Private Partnerships to Redevelop Sites
    • Obtain Seed Grants  for Environmental Site Assessments
    • Use Incentives in Existing State and Federal Programs and Create New Incentives for Redevelopment

      •  
  7. Encourage Transit-oriented Developments (TODs)
    • Create TOD  Zones Near Bus Lines
    • Reduce Parking Requirements in TOD Zones
    • Create a Comfortable Pedestrian Environment
    • Provide Developer Incentives for Transit Amenities

      •  
  8. Establish Greenbelts and Blueways for Open Space Protection
    • Establish Municipal Open Space Acquisition Programs
    • Adopt Farmland Preservation Zoning Bylaw
    • Provide Economic and Tax Incentives to Aid Farm Operations
    • Require Developer Dedication of Protected Open Space, Parks or Recreational Lands
    • Preserve Waterfront Lands (or easements) for Public Access
    • Establish Real Estate Transfer Taxes for Open Space Acquisition

      •  
  9. Build an Intermodal Pedestrian, Bicycle and Transit Network
    • Seek GRANTS TO Build Regional TrailNetwork
    • Work with Businesses to Develop Trail Linkages
    • Establish Pedestrian- friendly Street Design Standards

      •  
  10. Develop Zoning Bylaws for Environmental Protection
    • Adopt Water Supply Protection Zoning
    • Adopt Best Management Practices  for Non-point Source Pollution
    • Establish Overlay Zoning Districts for Floodplains, Steep Slopes, Ridgelines
    • Adopt Urban Stormwater Runoff Bylaws
    • Encourage Municipal Policies for Correction of Combined Sewer Overflows

      •  
  11. Control Commercial Strip Development
    • Establish Multiple Highway Zoning Districts for Specific Purposes
    • Create a Building Streetline
    • Encourage Planned Business Villages
    • Establiah Commercial Development Performance Standards
    • Adopt Traffic Management Bylaws
    • Adopt Zoning Standards for Stronger Pedestrian Connections

      •  
  12. Improve Infrastructure in Urban Areas and Limit Infrastructure Expansions
    • Limit Extension of Sewer and Water Lines Beyond Growth Areas
    • Seek Targeted State and Federal Funding for Urban Infrastructure Improvements
Valley Vision Encourages Communities to
THINK REGIONALLY, ACT LOCALLY

Contact Information:
Jim Scace 
Senior Planner/GIS Specialist 
Phone: (413) 781-6045 
Fax: (413) 732-2593 
E-mail: jscace@k12s.phast.umass.edu
Web Site: http://www.pvpc.org		 Pioneer Valley Planning Commission
26 Central Street
West Springfield, MA 01089

Presentation by Michael Olkin, GIS Coordinator, Central Massachusetts Regional Planning Commission
"Regional Development Suitability Model"

Michael Olkin of the Central Massachusetts Regional Planning Commission presented CMRPC's Regional Development Suitability Model.  Implemented through the use of raster GIS, this model was designed to identify the most highly suitable areas in Central Massachusetts for development based upon multiple infrastructural and environmental factors.  Michael presented the modeling technology, as well as animated results of several modeling scenarios.

The Central Massachusetts Regional Planning District consists of 40 Communities in Southern Worcester County, a 965 square mile area.
The CMRPC District:
Communities:
Auburn - Barre - Berlin - Blackstone - Boylston - Brookfield - Charlton - Douglas - Dudley - East Brookfield - Grafton - Hardwick - Holden - Hopedale - Leicester - Mendon - Millbury - Millville - New Braintree - North Brookfield - Northborough -Northbridge - Oakham - Oxford - Paxton - Princeton - Rutland - Shrewsbury - Southbridge - Spencer - Sturbridge - Sutton - Upton - Uxbridge - Warren - Webster - West Boylston - West Brookfield - Westborough - Worcester
Through the use of Geographic Information Systems, CMRPC has developed a model that allows planners to consider many of the factors that contribute to growth and sprawl. This is used as a decision-making tool for affecting alternative growth patterns for the future.

Visit the CMRPC web site at http://www.ultranet.com/~cmrpc/devsuit.htm for a complete review of the methodology and animated growth alternatives. 

Goals

  • To provide Planners, Communities & General Public with a way to visualize the impacts of estimated housing and employment growth through the next generation
  • To create a forum for planners and concerned citizens to discuss alternative approaches to traditional growth management policy.
  • To explore the utility of GIS as a decision support tool
Background
  • Funded by EOCD (now DHCD), it began in 1994 as a collaborative involving The IDRISI Project, Clark University Graduate Students, CMRPC Staff & Involved Citizens.
  • Used as a support mechanism for the development and implementation for a Regional Growth Policy Plan.
  • Runs completely on the IDRISI raster GIS platform, using decision support tools developed at Clark Labs.
  • Most input data is provided by MassGIS.
Scope
  • Uses multiple factors and constraints to allocate the most suitable land for development to specific areas in space.
  • Uses housing and employment growth estimates as a basis for future land development acreage needs. Current scenarios are based upon estimates through the year 2020.
  • Is not a predictive growth model.  It allows us to objectively develop scenarios based upon several of the factors that lead to growth.
Concepts

Raster Model: Vector data is converted into a raster grid of 30x30 Meter pixels. Raster images for the Central Massachusetts Region each contain 4,273,304 pixels 

Advantages vs. vector data:

  • Distance Factors are represented as continuous gradients rather than buffer zones
  • Data set is in a standard grid system, eliminating the problem of “sliver polygons”
  • Compatible with imagery, including satellite & aerial photography
  • Can represent landscape features such as slope
Disadvantages vs. vector data:
  • Raster data takes up lots of hard drive space
  • Vectorization of raster data is not always possible with large or complex images
  • Precision is sacrificed

Constraints - Land areas that are not considered available for development
  • Developed Land (1992) - Combination of 1985 McConnell Land Use Data & 1992 10-Meter SPOT Multispectral Imagery
  • Protected Open Space
  • Floodplains
  • Wetlands
  • Lakes, Ponds, Reservoirs,  Rivers & Streams
  • Zone I 400 foot Wellhead Protection Areas
  • City of Worcester - Predominance of redevelopment in Worcester prohibits modeling of new development in a manner consistent with the rest of the region.
Factors: Feature classes that contribute to suitability for growth. Land areas are given scores depending upon suitability.
Twelve factor “Images” are used.  Each image uses a standardized ranking system with a range in score values between zero and 255.  All factor values are therefore relative.
Factors can represent infrastructural, environmental, or demographic characteristics.
  • Environmental
    • Slopes derived from contour line data available from MassGIS.
    • Classified into 4 classes:
      • 0-7% (Most Suitable)
      • 7-15%
      • 15-25%
      • >25% (Least Suitable).

        •  
  • Proximity to Infrastructure
    • Proximity to Major Roads
      • Roads data derived from MassHighway Roadway Inventory Files.
      • Includes: Principal Arterial, Minor Arterial & Major Collector Routes
      • Distance Influence varies according to type of growth being modeled:
        • Office/Industrial & Retail: 1/4 Mile
        • Residential: 1 Mile
    • Proximity to Intersections & Interchanges
      • Distance from State Numbered Route Intersections: Influence to 1/4 Mile
      • Distance from Interchanges: Influence to 2 Miles
      • Example: Route 146 / I-90 Interchange
    • Proximity to Municipal Sewer Lines
      • Example: MDC Sewer Line Extensions for Wachusett Watershed areas in Holden & West Boylston
    • Proximity to Municipal Water Lines
    • Proximity to Urban Centers Outside of Region
      • Distance from Urban Centers (per town):
        • Boston *
        • Providence
        • Springfield


          • *Distance from Boston is factored in at twice the value of Providence or Springfield. 


    • Travel Time to Center of Worcester
      • Derived from Travel Time Data collected by CMRPC Staff.



  • Capacity of Infrastructure
    • Available Municipal Sewer and Water System Capacities
      • Available capacity provided by communities in 1994 and with subsequent updates to the data

        •  
  • Demographic (community)
    • Municipal Population, Median Income
      • Based Upon 1990 Census data
      • Primarily used with Retail Development Scenarios
    • School District Rating
      • Based on a four-factor index of school system quality:
        • Expenditures per-pupil
        • % of seniors going to college
        • % of teachers with advanced degrees
        • Combined SAT Scores
Bringing it all Together

Multiple Criteria Evaluation - a modeling method that combines several weighted factors in order to produce a map image of ranked suitability for all available land.

  • Allows us to run several model scenarios for:
    • Differing development types, ie. residential, office/industrial, retail.
    • Differing development patterns, ie. sprawl, compact growth, growth centers, etc

      •  
  • Factor Weighting for Multiple Scenarios - Each factor is assigned a weight as a measure of its importance to growth.
    • Trends Extended “Sprawl” Scenario: 2 Acres / household & Minimal Redevelopment 59,896 acres of new development by year 2020
    • Compact Growth Scenario: 2/3 Acres / household & Maximum Redevelopment: 18,384 acres of new development by year 2020
Multiple Objective Land Allocation (MOLA) - Several suitability layers representing different types of land use, are each assigned a target number of acres needed for development.  MOLA automates the task of resolving conflict between competing land uses.
 
Suitability Uses Acreage Needs
Residential 58,742 acres needed for Residential Growth by year 2020 
Office / Industrial 1022 acres needed for Office / Industrial growth by year 2020 
Retail 132 acres needed for Retail growth by year 2020

Problem!
Regional MOLA Produces a Rational Result: Areas that have a well developed infrastructure or proximity to infrastructure, are allocated most of the land. This comes at the expense of land allocation to the rest of the region.  The result is the depiction of buildout in some areas, while other areas show absolutely no growth.
Solution!
Sub-Regional MOLA: Regional suitability images are divided into subregions. MOLA is applied individually to sub-regions, using their respective land allocation needs. 

If a picture is worth a thousand words...How about a movie???
MOLA can be run repeatedly, gradually increasing the number of acres until the final acreage is achieved.  Each of the resulting output maps can be incorporated into consistent cartographic output & put together into a “film strip” sequence to illustrate growth.
 

Local Applications

1997 Holden / West Boylston MDC Sewer Line Extension Project
In 1997, The MDC began construction on extensions of sewer lines in Holden & West Boylston.  These improvements were made in order to eliminate septic systems within the southern Wachusett Watershed, protecting the Wachusett Reservoir.
Through a grant from EOEA, CMRPC used the development suitability model at the local level to analyze the possible effects upon growth that these additions in infrastructure might have upon these communities.

  • Implemented local model at 10 meter resolution for the purpose of examining possible shifts in growth suitability.
  • Analyzed land use at parcel level and developed highly accurate development constraint.
  • Ran growth scenarios with existing infrastructure & with future infrastructure for comparative results.
  • Used Model Results to make recommendations for zoning bylaw changes that  could maximize benefits of potential growth.


Final Comments

Strengths

  • Visual Tool - Helps people think about land use policy and our future.
  • “What If” - Analysis tool for assessing the possible effects of infrastructural changes.
Weaknesses
  • Lack of Temporal consistency
    • Developed Land Constraint is six years old.
    • Schools ratings are 5 years old.
    • Population Figures are from 1990 Census.
Future Initiatives
  • Creation of more scenarios
  • Improvement of input data
  • Continued Implementation at local level
  • Use as support for other planning models

Contact Information:
Michael Olkin 
GIS Coordinator 
Phone: (508) 756-7717 x 22 
Fax: (508) 792-6818 
E-mail: olkin@ma.ultranet.com
Website: http://www.ultranet.com/~cmrpc/gis.htm

Central Massachusetts Regional
Planning Commission
35 Harvard Street
Worcester, MA 01609

Presentation by Slater Anderson, GIS Manager, and Mark Racicot, Regional Planner, Metropolitan Area Planning Council
"Buildout Analysis"

Presentation Overview

  •  Background
  •  Methodology
  •  Present Work:
    •  City of Beverly: Residential Buildout
    •  City of Gloucester: Residential & Non-Residential Buildout
    •  SWAP/495: EOEA Planning for Growth Project
    •  South Shore: 4 Town Area, Vision 2020
    •  Rockland/Hingham: Reuse Implications
  •  Future Developments
Background
  • Through our Greenspace Initiative MAPC developed a comprehensive map of protected open space, developed land, and potentially developable land for the Metropolitan Region (MacConnell based).
  • We use this as a basis for the development of our local buildout analyses.
  • Communities want this analysis at a reasonable cost. “Broad-brush” approach supplemented by interaction with local knowledge.
  • Like other RPAs, MAPC utilizes in-house GIS skills, planning knowledge, and regional databases to do these studies.
  • MAPC’s Regional Plan MetroPlan 2000 supports the idea of concentrating future development around existing developed areas and transit nodes.
Methods
  • PHASE I:  Gather Important Data
    • Digital zoning data is updated if needed
    • Recent subdivisions, sewer & water service areas and overlay districts are digitized.
    • Other existing digital data is gathered:
      • MassGIS: Open space, land use, hydrography, FEMA flood zones, black and white orthophotos, wetlands, and town boundaries
      • Highway Department: road network
      • USF&WS: National Wetlands Inventory data
    • Miscellaneous features coverage is created.
      • Contains recently acquired open space, inholdings, ortho-delineated developed lands, and lands identified by the city as undevelopable.
    • The developed land (pre-1971 and 1971-1991) layers are from the aggregated MacConnell land use categories of mining, spectator and water-based recreation, residential, commercial, industrial, transportation, and waste disposal).

      •  
  • PHASE II: Automated Analysis
    • Layers subtracted from zoning include:
      • recent subdivisions, wetlands, pre-1971 developed land, 1971-1991 developed lands, permanently protected open space, sliver polygons that are less than 200 sq. meters, and lands identified by the city as undevelopable.
    • Visual inspection of results by MAPC using orthophotography and digital USGS Topo maps.
    • Visual inspection by city planning staff in cooperation with MAPC staff.

      •  
  • PHASE III: Buildable Lot and Gross Floor Area Calculations
    • The number of buildable residential lots is determined by a zoning category formula based on the land requirements of a typical lot in each zone.
    • The formula factors in required frontage multiplied by one-half the required right-of-way width to determine road area dedication. This figure varies form zone to zone and town to town. Additionally 10% is subtracted from each zone to cover miscellaneous variables such a odd lot shapes. The 10% is based on an analysis of recent subdivision approvals in each zone.
    • The quantity of non-residential development (gross floor area) is calculated using the floor area ratios in the zoning by-laws.

      •  
  • PHASE IV: Impact Calculations and Recommendations
    • For residential development the impact on future school enrollment and costs are important as well as municipal services (water, sewer, and roads).
    • For non-residential development fiscal impacts are calculated based on services required for development (water, sewer, and roads).
    • Recommendations are made for potential changes to the zoning by-laws or district configurations to better accommodate growth.
Present Projects
  • City of Beverly: Residential Buildout Analysis
    • First project with developed low-cost approach
  • City of Gloucester: Residential & Non-residential Buildout Analysis
    • Some parcel-based analysis
  • SWAP/495: Six town area along Route 495
    • Residential and non-residential analysis, emphasis on fiscal impacts
  • South Shore/Vision 2020: Four town study area
    • Implications of Commuter Rail extension, comparison to existing buildout study for Marshfield.
  • Rockland/Hingham: Re-use implication for sub-town study areas
    • Parcel-based analysis of area adjacent to SWNAS
Future Developments
  • Education Impacts: Detailed school enrollment and costs projections
  • Transportation Impacts: Associated with different forms of development
    • trip generation
    • infrastructure needs
  • Other Fiscal Impacts: Infrastructure and services (water, sewer, waste disposal).
  • Cost-Revenue Analysis: Estimates of the revenues versus the costs mentioned above.
  • Parcel-based Analysis
  • ArcView and/or Web-based Scenarios and modeling
    • use of multipliers
    • more automation

Contact Information:
Slater Anderson 
GIS Manager 
Phone ext.: 2027 
E-Mail: sanderson@mapc.org		 Marc Racicot 
Regional Planner 
Phone ext.: 2063 
E-Mail: mracicot@mapc.org
Metropolitan Area Planning Council 
60 Temple Place 
Boston, MA 02111 
Main Phone: (617) 451-2770 
Web Site: http://www.mapc.org/


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