The Challenge
Southern Pine Beetle (SPB) is a bark beetle native to Mexico through the Mid-Atlantic. Because of climate change, SPB has recently expanded its range into northern New Jersey, New York, and southern New England. Pitch pine, a native pine species, is a keystone species in many of the Commonwealth’s most important ecosystems, and it is highly vulnerable to SPB. Without dramatic intervention, infestations kill every mature pitch pine in an infested area, increasing wildfire risk and damaging globally rare ecosystems.
Healthy pitch pine ecosystems are expected to be resilient and resistant to many of the impacts of climate change, however, unhealthy and unmanaged systems are among the most at risk. Degraded pitch pine ecosystems are not only susceptible to SPB infestation, but also catastrophic wildfires that could impact human health, property, and safety while releasing large amounts of carbon into the atmosphere. Healthy pitch pine ecosystems can safely store carbon long term, while providing habitat for rare and declining species.
After a decade of severe infestations throughout Long Island, SPB has finally taken a foothold in Massachusetts. The first infestations were detected on Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket in 2023, and suppression efforts are underway. It is only a matter of time before the beetle infests the mainland where there are over one hundred thousand acres of pitch pine forests and woodlands.
Massachusetts completed a Southern Pine Beetle Action Plan in 2018. To date, however, there has not been a geospatial analysis of hazard. Multiple forest models exist but have never been evaluated for accuracy in pitch pine systems.
Project Scope
Production of a statewide assessment of pitch pine ecosystems and their vulnerability to SPB infestations under current and projected climate change scenarios. The assessment includes:
- identification of pitch pine ecosystems throughout the commonwealth,
- description of natural communities at sampled locations,
- measurement of vegetative factors that contribute to vulnerability at each sample location (i.e., overstory density, cover, composition, etc.),
- proximity to Environmental Justice Communities,
- scoring vulnerability based on climatic and ecological factors,
- evaluating accuracy of existing forest models
The project includes vegetation sampling at sites selected by MassWildlife and synthesizing pre-existing data from locations throughout the Commonwealth. Data was formatted, and the established hazard model was applied for each plot or stand. The findings are used to evaluate and improve the ability of existing forest models implementing preexisting inventory data to be used for Southern Pine Beetle hazard assessment. Hazard ratings based on new data will be compared to the initial hazard ratings to find strengths and weaknesses within the models. The project includes production of a final report that summarizes current and future SPB hazard across Massachusetts and provides recommendations.
Metrics
The project was evaluated by number of plots sampled, report produced on time, and quality of recommendations.
Results
The project met all objectives. A total of 430 plots were sampled across the state. The draft report is currently under review by the interagency working group and a final version is expected to be published within the year.
Findings include over 100,000 acres at moderate or higher risk of infestation.
Numerous pitch pine woodlands within EJ communities are at risk of SPB infestation.
Pine barrens habitat restoration reduced SPB hazard on state lands.
Existing forest models are not good at representing pitch pine on the landscape. The two models evaluated had different issues. One was better at identifying high risk areas, but overestimated risk in low-risk areas. The other model systematically underestimated risk.
Best Practices and Lessons Learned
This project formed a de facto state SPB working group. This group can be useful for continuing conversations regarding the growing threat.
The sample size was too small for statistically significant evaluations of the models. A more robust study and refinement of models is needed.
The timeline was compressed because of fiscal year constraints. The contractor working on the project was pressed to finish the project on time.
Project Alignment with ResilientMass Plan Priority Actions
This project contributes to Item 70 of the 2023 State Hazard Mitigation and Climate Adaptation Plan - MassWildlife will continue to coordinate forest health projects with sister agencies such as DCR and DEP.
This project addresses two urgent impacts in the Natural Environmental Sector as identified in the 2022 MA Climate Assessment. Climate change facilitated SPB invasion intersects both “forest health degradation” (Extreme Magnitude) and “shifting distribution of native and invasive species” (Major Magnitude). The Resilient MA suite of tools can be used to help prioritize individual sites as part of the assessment. This project helps meet all six of the SHMCAP goals and will improve the scientific knowledge base needed to protect this important natural resource from the impacts of climate change.
Further Action
There is a need for improved modeling so hazard can be more accurately mapped. As infestations become more common, the state needs to have the ability to assess where infestations are likely to occur and have the greatest impacts.
Preventative treatments are needed to protect pitch pine ecosystems from impacts.
Suppression efforts will be required for active infestations. The state should provide funding and streamlined permitting to make sure that infestations can be effectively and quickly suppressed.
ResilientMass and other funding sources will be used to implement recommendations from the report.
Additional Information and Resources
In addition to the assessment, we were able to use the grant funds to purchase five monitoring kits for future sampling efforts.