Introduction
Employment projections can be used to identify long-term trends in employment and provide an idea of what the future workforce may look like. This information can be helpful for employers, job seekers, and policymakers. Use the interactive data dashboards below to explore short and long term employment projections for occupations and industries in Massachusetts and Workforce Development Areas (WDAs).
For caveats and more information on how employment projections are produced, see Definitions and Methodology.
Occupational Employment Projections Explorer Dashboard
Dashboard Navigation
- Timing: Use the Projections drop down menu to select long-term or short-term projections.
- Occupational Group: Use the Occupation drop down menu to select a major occupational group or select “All Occupations.” When any level of occupational grouping is selected in the dashboard, through the drop-down or by clicking, its sub-groups are included at the bottom of the dashboard. Users can search for specific occupations by clicking the “search” tab at the top of the dashboard. A full list of SOC groups and occupations can be found on the Bureau of Labor Statistics website. For more information on occupations, see Definitions and Methodology.
- Geography: The dashboard defaults to state-wide data for Massachusetts. Use the Region drop down menu to view data for a specific Workforce Development Area (WDA).
To download the data used in the above visualization, see Data Reference and Download.
How to use the Occupational Employment Projections Explorer
The occupational employment projections explorer dashboard can be used to examine projected change of various occupational groups and sub-groups.
- Select an occupation or occupational group to view base and projected employment, net change (# and %), and median annual wages. View and sort sub-groups of the selected occupation or occupational group using the bottom half of the dashboard.
- Use the scatter plot on the left of the dashboard to compare projected change and typical wages across occupations for a specific geography, or across geographies for a specific occupation or occupational group.
- Use the map on the right of the dashboard to compare projected change via Workforce Development Area (WDA).
- Hovering your cursor over dashboard elements will reveal additional information.
- Click the concepts tab (or see Definitions and Methodology) for definitions and links to download data.
Industry Employment Projections Explorer Dashboard
Dashboard Navigation
- Timing: Use the Projections drop down menu to select long-term or short-term projections.
- Industry: Use the “type” and “sector” drop down menu to filter and/or select an industry sector. You can also select a sector or sub-sector by clicking it. Use the sliding level bar to adjust the level of aggregation displayed in the bottom half of the dashboard. A full list of economic sectors and sub-sectors can be found on the US Census Bureau’s website. For more information on industries, see Definitions and Methodology.
- Geography: The dashboard defaults to state-wide data for Massachusetts. Use the Region drop down menu to view data for a specific Workforce Development Area (WDA).
To download the data used in the above visualization, see Data Reference and Download.
How to use the Industry Employment Projections Explorer
The Industry Employment Projections Explorer Dashboard can be used to examine projected change in employment of various industries.
- Select an industry sector or sub-sector using the drop down or by clicking to view base and projected employment and net change (# and %).
- Use the map on the right of the dashboard to compare projected change of the selected industry sector or sub-sector via Workforce Development Area (WDA).
- Hovering your cursor over dashboard elements will reveal additional information.
- Click the concepts tab (or see Definitions and Methodology) for definitions and links to download data.
Definitions & Methodology
Definitions
- Base Employment: How many jobs existed in that occupational group during the year that projections are calculated from.
- Projected Employment: How many jobs are projected to exist in that occupational group during the year that projections are modeled for.
- Net Change: The projected change in employment between the base year and projection year.
- Percent Change: The projected change in employment between the base year and projection year expressed as a portion of the base year employment.
- Median Annual Wage: The middle value for annual wages in an occupational group, adjusted for full-time equivalency.
Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) System
The above dashboard organizes groups and sub-groups of occupations according to the Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) System. According to Bureau of Labor Statistics, “The 2018 Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) system is a federal statistical standard used by federal agencies to classify workers into occupational categories for the purpose of collecting, calculating, or disseminating data. All workers are classified into one of 867 detailed occupations according to their occupational definition."
Major Groups are broken down into more minor groups, which are broken down further into broad occupations and the most granular level of detail, detailed occupation. The above dashboard contains data to the major and minor level of disaggregation. Due to suppression of certain values, adding employment of minor groups will not necessarily add up to major group totals.
| SOC Example: Surgical Technicians | ||
|---|---|---|
| Digits/Code | Level of Detail | Title |
| 29-0000 | Major Groups | Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations |
| 29-2000 | Minor Groups | Health Technologists and Technicians |
| 29-2050 | Broad Occupations | Health Practitioner Support Technologists and Technicians |
| 29-2055 | Detailed Occupation | Surgical Technicians |
North American Industry Classification System (NAICS)
Industry employment projections use the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). According to the US Census Bureau, “The North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) is the standard used by federal statistical agencies in classifying business establishments for the purpose of collecting, analyzing, and publishing statistical data related to the U.S. business economy." A firm may have multiple establishments with multiple NAICS codes - for example, a firm that has a warehouse and a retail location.
Economic sectors are broken down into subsectors, which are broken down further into industry groups and NAICS industries. The Industry Employment Projections Explorer provides data to the subsector level. Due to suppression of certain values, adding the employment of sub-sectors will not necessarily add up to sector totals.
| NAICS Example: Other Outpatient Care Centers | ||
|---|---|---|
| Digits/Code | Level of Detail | Description |
| 620000 | Economic Sector | Healthcare and Social Assistance |
| 621000 | Subsector | Ambulatory Health Care Services |
| 621400 | Industry Group | Outpatient Care Centers |
| 621490 | NAICS Industry | Other Outpatient Care Centers |
Economic sectors are sometimes grouped together into two categories: Goods-Producing Industries and Service-Providing Industries. You can select between these two categories using the drop-down at the top of the Industry Employment Projections Explorer dashboard.
Employment Projection Methodology
Timing & Geographies
Short-term employment projections cover a 2-year look ahead window, and long-term employment projections cover a 10-year look ahead window.
Both short- and long- term employment projections are available for occupations and industries. DER currently produces these employment projections state-wide for Massachusetts and for Workforce Development Areas (WDAs).
Projection Process
The employment projections process can be split into two major stages: Industrial projections and Occupational projections. Industry projections are done with internal modeling techniques and then combined with occupational data inputs into standardized software (distributed by the Projections Management Partnership (PMP)) to automate most of the occupational projections process. This process produces estimates for occupational base year employment and projected year employment levels, in addition, separations data like the base and projected occupational job openings, transfers, and exits are generated.
Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics Data (OEWS) and Quarterly Census of Employment and Wage (QCEW) Data are inputs into the occupational and industry employment projections process. These data collection programs include only workers eligible for unemployment insurance. Workers on unpaid leave, owners/partners of unincorporated companies (e.g., an LLC), students in a work-study program, etc. are not included.
Limitations & Caveats
Employment projections don’t account for political elections and impact; “black swan” events such as the 2008 Great Recession and the 2020 COVID-19 Pandemic; extreme inflation or deflation; Federal Reserve interest rates, or the stock market.
The forecast error for employment projections increases at the number of years projected increases. Limited prior year observations / data puts a limit on how precise forecasts can be made. The more observations, the less likelihood of error. The small number of post-Covid-19 observations creates modeling challenges. As time progresses this becomes less an issue.
Projected annual growth rates can increase or decrease significantly on a year-to-year basis.
Data Reference & Download
The below projections data sets are available to download from DER for Massachusetts and Workforce Development Areas (WDAs).