Summary
Each year, DOER analyzes available winter weather forecasts, projected prices, and expected consumption for major heating fuel sources (natural gas, heating oil, propane, electric heating) to provide heating season cost estimates for Massachusetts homes. This 2024-25 winter report provides help as households prepare for this season’s energy budgets and assist state partners in providing adequate resources for households in the Commonwealth. With fuel and electric costs generally higher than last year and with forecasted colder temperatures, consumers should plan for moderately higher overall energy bills this winter. Consumers should note that the estimated future prices and expenditures in this report are subject to change and should not be used by households to determine a specific budget for heating costs for the upcoming winter.
“Massachusetts is expected to see lower retail heating oil and propane prices, but higher natural gas and electricity prices this winter. Forecasts for a colder winter, if accurate, will drive household heating consumption and costs higher than last winter, except for heating oil.”
The following key points of the report are discussed in more detail below:
- Massachusetts is expected to experience lower retail prices for heating oil and propane, but higher prices for natural gas. Electricity prices are expected to remain similar to last year.
- The upcoming winter is projected to be 6% colder than last year’s moderate winter, increasing the expected consumption of heating fuel sources. This leads to higher overall heating expenditure estimates regardless of heating source.
- Household heating costs this winter are projected to be higher than last winter for all heating fuel sources, except heating oil, due to a combination of higher retail prices and expected consumption. Compared to last year, the cost of heating for residential customers is expected to be 24% higher for homes heating with natural gas, 6% higher for electricity, 1% higher for propane, and 11% lower for homes heating with heating oil.
- Massachusetts offers a wide variety of incentives to increase energy savings year-round and help with heating bills; visit the ‘Help with your heating bill’ section.
Introduction
Space heating is the largest part of household energy costs. In Massachusetts, most households heat their homes using natural gas, followed by fuel oil, electricity, and propane. To see a further breakdown of how Massachusetts households heat their homes, visit how Mass. Households heat their homes.
Massachusetts Department of Energy Resources (DOER) helps run programs to reduce home heating energy use, lower heating bills, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and provide residents with information on their home heating choices. Every year, DOER analyzes available winter weather forecasts, projected prices, and expected consumption for major heating fuel sources (natural gas, heating oil, propane, electric heating) to provide heating season cost projections for Massachusetts homes.
How to use this report
DOER publishes this annual heating report to help residents understand market conditions for home heating. This report presents estimated price, consumption, and expenditure for the winter season based on the latest available data. This report is being provided to help households prepare for energy bills more generally and assist state partners in providing adequate resources for households in the Commonwealth. However, due to high uncertainty, estimates in this report are subject to change and should not be used by households to determine a specific budget for heating costs for the upcoming winter. Throughout this report, both winter and heating season mean the period between November and March (e.g., 2024/2025 heating season is November 2024 to March 2025).
Forecast of winter conditions and expected energy use
While fuel prices are the biggest factor in what households are expected to spend on heating, winter weather has a significant impact on heating bills. A colder winter causes an average home to use more fuel and spend more, while a milder winter may mean households use and spend less.
According to the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center, the upcoming winter is projected to be 3.9% warmer than normal winter temperatures (1981-2010) but still 5.9% colder than last year. As a result, Massachusetts households may need to use more energy for space heating compared to last winter.
Heating fuels price estimate for this winter
According to the United States Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) October Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), there is continued uncertainty in global markets impacting energy prices and supply levels. The EIA 2024-25 Winter Fuels Outlook forecasts generally higher wholesale energy prices – the price fuel and electricity suppliers charge – for the upcoming winter as compared to the 2023/2024 winter heating season. These increases in wholesale fuel costs will result in higher retail electricity and retail natural gas prices - the price residents will pay through their utility bills.
DOER provides estimates for heating fuel prices based on currently available wholesale and retail energy pricing. Changes in crude oil and wholesale heating oil prices pass through to the retail heating oil price much more quickly; as a result, the heating oil price estimate is subject to heightened uncertainty. While propane and heating oil prices go up and down throughout the winter, DOER provides an average heating season price in this report. Additionally, though many heating oil and propane customers buy supplies ahead of winter and refuel as needed, our estimate does not account for heating oil purchased prior to winter. Retail natural gas and electric rates may remain constant or vary depending on each resident’s energy supply contract terms.
During the winter, DOER publishes weekly pricing for heating oil and propane in Massachusetts as part of our participation in the State Heating Oil and Propane Program (SHOPP). Consumers should visit the DOER weekly heating survey webpage for the most up-to-date information on current heating oil and propane prices. Electricity and natural gas rates are determined by each resident’s energy supply contract terms [1] in addition to delivery charges as approved by Massachusetts Department of Public Utilities (DPU). Current Massachusetts’ electric and gas utility rates are available at the DPU’s Utility Filings and Tariffs website.
Figure 1 shows average residential heating fuel cost by heating fuel for the past five winters, along with an estimate for this upcoming winter. Many factors influence the costs year to year including market conditions, weather, and changes in demand.
Figure 1: Winter Season Average Residential Heating Fuel Prices
Source: DOER Analysis
The prices for propane and heating oil in Figure 1 are the average prices from many fuel suppliers across the state and will vary from company to company across the Commonwealth. The average is not a guarantee of price for residents,: some residents will pay more and some less for propane and heating oil. The prices for electricity and natural gas are estimated load-weighted averages across the distribution companies, such as National Grid, Eversource, and Unitil. Since distribution companies charge different rates across the Commonwealth, a load-weighted average will reflect the share of customers receiving electricity or natural gas from the various companies.
Household heating costs for 2024-2025 winter by average consumption for each fuel
“Customers can expect varying winter heating cost compared to last year, depending on heating source”
Homes in Massachusetts use different types of fuel for heating, and the average type of home for each fuel type is different. For example, electric resistance heat, or electric baseboard heat, is more often used in apartments in multifamily housing. Apartments tend to be smaller than single-family homes, which are more likely to use oil or gas heat. Larger spaces use more fuel (consumption) to stay warm and therefore can have higher costs. Spaces that are well-insulated and have been weatherized will require less fuel to maintain the same temperature. In this report, average heating expenditures reflect the average size of housing units and therefore are not an “apples to apples” comparison.
To compare the cost of producing heat from different fuel sources, Figure 2 presents the cost to heat this winter using different technologies using the 2024/2025 winter price estimates in this report. Costs are shown in dollars per unit of heat, which is measured in British thermal units (Btu). This cost analysis does not reflect the full benefits that can be achieved through energy efficiency measures, decarbonization, and air conditioning costs. Please see the Comparing Heating Technologies section for more information on the benefits of air source heat pumps.
While Figure 2 shows the costs of heating based on the averages used in this report, household fuel and electricity costs will vary based on the residents’ supply rates. This is most evident in electricity costs which may be impacted by a residents’ participation in a municipal aggregation/Community Choice program or service through Basic Service, competitive supply, or a Municipal Light Plant (MLP). Households should not assume this data guarantees cost savings by fuel switching, please see your own supply rate to estimate your household costs
Figure 2: Cost to Produce Heat this Winter (2024/25) for Different Technologies
Source: DOER Analysis
Note: The light-blue bars represent the estimated average cost to heat by technology, based on the statewide-average cost of fuel/electricity (e.g., the statewide average cost of natural gas is $2.36/therm). Since fuel and electricity prices vary across Massachusetts, the dark-blue lines illustrate the range of costs that Massachusetts households are expected to pay this winter.
DOER compiles data each year to estimate an average Massachusetts household’s consumption and expenditures dedicated to space heating. DOER uses housing data, EIA’s Energy Outlooks, and utility company filings at the Massachusetts Department of Public Utilities (DPU). In this report, DOER compiled readily available data to provide consumption and expenditure estimates. Figure 3 shows estimated household winter expenditures for space heating by fuel source for recent past years and the estimate for the 2024/25 winter season. Of note, the data for electric resistance heat expenditures is focused on data from homes heated through electric baseboard heat, not air or ground-source heat pumps which are a much more efficient technology and therefore use less electricity to heat the same space as electric baseboards.
Figure 3: Winter Season Average Residential Household Space Heating Expenditures
Source: DOER Analysis
Note: As described below, the data graphed above does not indicate that a household can ensure savings by switching heating systems. The expenditures estimated here are based on the average home size and year of construction for homes with that heating source; for instance, homes that heat with electricity tend to be smaller. The estimated expenditures are based on current estimates of fuel price and consumption.
Heating oil remained the most expensive fuel to heat an average household this past winter, costing $1,841 through the winter. Propane was less expensive at $1,448 while natural gas heating totaled $826 in the 2023/24 heating season. Electric heating, primarily electric baseboard heating, was cheapest at an estimated $795 for space heating, although this reflects the smaller average home size for units that heat with electric resistance (baseboard) heat. The above data does not account for differences in housing unit type, year of construction, home size, and other factors that can influence heating fuel consumption for space heating. Households should not assume this data guarantees cost savings by fuel switching to electricity. For better estimates of switching household heating systems, Mass Save® offers a Heating Comparison Calculator to calculate potential savings.
Table 1 shows DOER’s estimates of space heating expenditures for the 2024-2025 winter for a residential customer for each fuel type, including the estimates of Massachusetts’ retail energy prices and average fuel consumption for space heating. The consumption estimates below only account for estimated space heating needs, total household consumption and expenditures will be higher due to other energy uses, such as water heating, appliances, lighting, and other uses. Unexpected changes in weather, commodity prices, or wholesale prices can change the retail price of fuels and consumption; therefore, these estimates may not reflect any individual consumer’s actual expenditures. Utility compliance filings may be submitted to DPU from time to time and may impact the price consumers pay for electricity and natural gas.
Table 1: 2024/25 Estimated Space Heating Expenditures by Fuel
Source: DOER Analysis
Help with your heating bills
Massachusetts offers a wide variety of financial incentives for all consumers to save on their energy bills, including no-cost programs for home upgrades and enhanced incentives for income eligible customers. The most effective way to reduce heating bills is to use less energy through weatherization and energy efficiency measures. The statewide Mass Save® program offers no-cost home energy assessments, rebates on efficient heating equipment as well as 0% financing for major energy efficiency measures.
Massachusetts offers a wide variety of financial incentives for all consumers to save on their energy bills, including no-cost programs for home upgrades and enhanced incentives for income eligible customers. The most effective way to reduce heating bills is to use less energy through weatherization and energy efficiency measures. The statewide Mass Save® program offers no-cost home energy assessments, rebates on efficient heating equipment as well as 0% financing for major energy efficiency measures.
Customers of municipal light plant companies (MLPs) can also access similar benefits either through the NextZero (formerly HELPS) energy efficiency programs or Energy New England. Contact your municipal utility for more information on available programs in your municipality.
If you are a residential customer struggling to pay your utility bills, contact your utility to discuss programs that may be available to help, including discount rates or payment plans. For more information please see: Frequently Asked Questions about Electric, Gas, and Water Utilities. Residents can also take advantage of the Home Energy Assistance Programs, including fuel assistance and energy efficiency programs for income eligible households.
For additional information on saving energy, visit the U.S. DOE’s Energy Saver’s website. Get tips on weatherizing your home, maintaining your heating system and more. Consumers can also download the free Energy Savers Guide (available in English and Spanish).
Comparing heating technologies to save on your heating bills
With rising heating fuel prices and increasing volatility in global energy markets, it's essential to consider long-term solutions that offer both economic stability and environmental benefits. Clean heating and cooling technologies have advanced in the Commonwealth with air source heat pumps leading the way. Air-source heat pumps are a more efficient and cost-effective way to heat your home using electricity at a fraction of the cost of electric resistance, oil, or propane heating. These hyper-efficient and quiet heat pumps operate in below zero temperatures to heat living and working spaces comfortably and efficiently. During the summer months, these units are used to efficiently cool spaces. Visit the Massachusetts Clean Energy Center's Air Source Heat Pump Guide for more information.
Ductless, mini-split system heat pumps (mini splits) are a good option for homes with non-ducted heating systems, such as hot water heat, radiant panels, and space heaters (wood, kerosene, propane). Mini-splits are also a good choice for room additions where extending or installing distribution ductwork is not feasible and very efficient new homes that require only a small space conditioning system.
For more information on mini-splits, central heating, and ground source heat pump systems as well as available rebates and incentives, visit Mass Save's Heat Pump Heating and Cooling website. If you are a municipal utility customer, visit their website or contact them for more information on available programs. Extensive federal tax incentives are now available for these technologies as well.
DOER's Alternative Portfolio Standard (APS) allows consumers to receive compensation for heat generated by renewable heating and cooling technologies such as heat pumps, solar hot water, woody biomass, liquid biofuels, and biogas. Eligible facilities receive certificates for the heat they produce, which can then be sold to retail electricity suppliers that are required to purchase certificates to meet their APS obligation.
Factors impacting heating prices this season
Natural gas, heating oil, propane, and electricity rates in Massachusetts stabilized last winter season following disruptions caused in part by the Russia–Ukraine war in the prior winter. While some prices may continue to stabilize in 2024, higher prices are expected to remain during the winter season due to cold weather and global demand pressures, except for propane.
Natural Gas: While natural gas rates typically increase as we enter the winter heating season, this year’s increase is due to continued volatility in commodity markets and higher local distribution company (LDC) costs. Natural gas retail rates for Massachusetts’ residents are approved by the Massachusetts Department of Public Utilities (DPU) and include cost recovery for supply, demand, capital and infrastructure, and other costs. A significant portion of supply and demand costs are based on the commodity cost for natural gas and can increase significantly over the winter when natural gas prices for New England increase. Like heating oil and propane, natural gas commodity prices are impacted by several factors including production, storage levels, net trade, variations in temperature, economic growth, and availability and prices of other fuels. DOER relies on local distribution companies’ compliance filings to the DPU for updates to current and near future residential gas prices. The gas supply rate, the Cost of Gas Adjustment factor (GAF) and the Local Distribution Adjustment factor, and the tariffs and delivery rates are approved by the DPU. To estimate this winter’s natural gas rate, DOER assumes that the delivery and supply rates will remain constant as of this report date. The gas supply rates used to estimate the natural gas rate have been filed by the local distribution companies and are subject to DPU approval. Local distribution companies reserve the right to file adjustments to the gas rate with the DPU to recover various changing costs throughout the winter. As a result, the estimate provided may change throughout the season due to market volatility.
Heating Oil: With crude oil prices forecasted to remain low, retail heating oil prices are expected to follow suit. However, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East raises the potential for oil supply disruptions, which could lead to increases in crude oil prices. The EIA forecasts the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price will average $72/barrel (b), or $1.71/gal this winter, which would be 40 cents/gal or 19% lower than last winter. DOER is projecting a 16.5% decrease in the heating oil retail consumers pay for this upcoming winter, averaging $3.43/gallon, down from last winter’s average of $4.11/gallon for Massachusetts consumers. Decreased consumption and high inventories in the region contribute to lower heating oil prices.
It is not unusual for retail heating oil prices to increase during the winter as demand for the heating fuel increases. DOER’s estimate for the upcoming heating season is based on market conditions and estimates at the time of this publication; changes in the commodity or wholesale markets pass down relatively quickly to retail markets meaning this estimate can differ greatly from current market retail price. Residents can visit the Massachusetts Home Heating Fuels Prices website to check the current week’s price of heating oil and propane in Massachusetts, collected as a part of the State Heating Oil and Propane Program (SHOPP).
Propane: DOER bases future residential propane price estimates on the historical relationship between WTI crude oil price and Massachusetts retail propane price. Based on this approach, DOER is using a projected propane price of $3.33/gallon in the 2024/25 winter season, compared to $3.51/gallon in the 2023/24 winter season. Off-season propane prices collected through SHOPP showed a decreasing trend in propane prices falling to $3.46/gallon as of October 2024.
The above three fuel estimates should not be interpreted as prescriptive as each fuel has its own market structure, infrastructure, regulations, and limitations that influence connections between wholesale and retail markets.
Electricity: Electric distribution companies (EDCs) and municipal light plants (MLPs) issue electricity bills to their distribution customers. The final price of electricity shown on a bill reflects the sum of several separate charges. The two main components of electricity rates are the supply charge and the delivery charge: the supply charge represents the cost of generating the electricity, while the delivery charge represents the cost of bringing that electricity to the customer’s home. Electric delivery costs are either charged by EDCs in Massachusetts, which include Eversource, National Grid, and Unitil, regardless of the residents’ source of electricity supply, or a municipal light plant (MLP). Delivery charges include transmission, distribution, operations, and service charges, along with public policy charges. Massachusetts electric rates and tariffs are approved by the DPU. For the purposes of the winter heating report, DOER assumes that the delivery portion of the electric retail rate will remain constant as is effective at the publishing of this report.
The supply side includes costs of energy on the wholesale electricity market as well as clean energy policy compliance costs. The delivery charge includes distribution network costs (poles and wires), long-distance transmission, as well as charges for clean energy, energy efficiency, and other reconciling charges. Electricity usage is measured in kilowatt-hours (kWh) and supply and delivery charges on electric bills are calculated on a per kWh basis. For a more detailed explanation of your utility bill, see DPU’s information on how to read your bill.
In Massachusetts, consumers have a choice to supply their energy through the Electric Distribution Company (EDC), known as basic service, a municipal aggregation plan, or a competitive supplier. The MA DPU provides more information regarding electric Basic Service Rates by service territory. For data on electric and natural gas customer choice, see DOER’s Electric & Gas Customer Choice Data. Many customers in Massachusetts receive electricity supply from a municipal aggregation. If your city or town launched a municipal aggregation, you may have been automatically enrolled in the program. Municipal aggregation rates are often fixed for a longer duration than Basic Service rates (for example, 18-36 months).
Consumers may also offset some of their supply charge by enrolling in a Community Shared Solar (CSS) project. Community Shared Solar allocates the energy produced by a large solar array to many customers. Consumers pay the CSS project directly, whom in turn allocate bill credits to their account with their respective EDC. CSS projects provide renewable energy at a discount compared to basic service rates.
The supply charge estimate used in this report is based on basic service rates and does not account for consumers choosing individual competitive supply or municipal aggregation products. Notably, a analysis of individual competitive supply contracts conducted by the Attorney General’s Office over the past several years shows that customers on these contracts typically pay more than those on basic service pricing. Based on currently announced basic service rates, the load-weighted average across Massachusetts is $0.332/kWh. This estimate combines the supply and delivery charges and represents the total cost of electricity to a resident.
Historical and estimated future price, consumption, and expenditures by fuel type for Massachusetts households is summarized in Table 2 below.
Table 2: 2024/25 Estimated Space Heating Consumption and Expenditures, MA
Source: DOER Analysis
For consumers interested in following energy markets and prices throughout the heating season, the EIA tracks energy prices and the issues influencing them. This information is published in, “This Week in Petroleum” (TWIP) on DOE’s website, www.eia.doe.gov. To assist in tracking factors impacting all heating fuels, EIA also publishes the “Annual Winter Fuels Outlook” as part of its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook.
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| Date published: | November 10, 2023 |
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| Last updated: | November 10, 2023 |