Vulnerability Assessment - Long-Term Source Drinking Water Management

This is a ResilientMass Action.

The Challenge

The Massachusetts Department of Conservation and Recreation (DCR) Division of Water Supply Protection (DWSP) controls over 100,000 acres of land comprising of forests, wetlands, streams, and reservoirs. The DCR/MWRA water supply system is one of the few unfiltered drinking water supplies in the country. This system relies heavily on its natural assets, including rivers, streams, forested watersheds, aquifer systems, wetlands, and other natural features within each watershed to act as a biological filter for excellent water quality. The ecosystem services provided by the water resources and surrounding forests contribute to DWSP’s excellent source water quality, but also moderate runoff and floods within the watersheds and aid with groundwater recharge. Degradation of these natural assets can not only reduce water quality, and impact the ability to provide clean drinking water, but it can also reduce biodiversity and influence state-listed species.     

DWSP’s natural assets are vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Understanding this vulnerability is key to informing and prioritizing future management decisions to ensure the ongoing health of the watersheds and stability of the drinking water supply. Informed watershed planning is necessary to maintain a waiver from the Federal Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for filtration requirements. 

Project Scope

The study is focused on the Quabbin Reservoir, Ware River, and Wachusett Reservoir watersheds in central Massachusetts. The project will identify and assess the condition of the critical natural assets owned and managed by the DCR Division of Water Supply Protection.  This assessment aims to identify the vulnerability of forest and natural assets at the sub-watershed scale under future climate scenarios. It should use data to measure sensitivity and adaptive capacity in alignment with DWSP's mission and management goals. DWSP will use study results to find opportunities to enhance resilience, implement climate adaptation strategies, and guide the prioritization of capital planning decisions and designs. The vulnerability assessment will be conducted in phases over the next five years. 

Overall Goals of the project include: 

• Identify and assess the condition of DWSP forest and other natural assets.
• Evaluate the anticipated near and long-term vulnerability of DWSP forest and other natural assets in the context of the exposure to extreme weather and climate effects, and adaptive capacity.
• Evaluate the anticipated near and long-term vulnerability of watershed-wide forest and other natural assets.
• Estimate costs and qualitative consequences of water quality under future conditions assuming no management of natural assets is implemented. 

Specific Actions and Timeline

FY24: Natural Asset Inventory and Condition Assessment (November 1, 2023 - June 30, 2024) 

1.  Determine which natural assets are critical to public water supply. 
   1. Identify and define which natural assets are the most critical for water supply protection, using approach outlined in the 2020 Asset Management Framework for Forested and Natural Assets report by the Water Research Foundation as a framework. 
2. Define the appropriate level of detail for tracking and assessing the condition of those natural assets. 
   1. Identify the types of data available and the cost of collecting, editing, and maintaining detailed information. 
3. Describe the current state of natural assets based on current available data. 
   1. Identify or develop indicators that evaluate the ecological health of assets. 
   2. Design protocol to evaluate natural asset condition. 
4. Identify what additional data is needed to track and assess the condition of the natural assets considering projected climate change scenarios.
   1. Goal: to use current conditions to inform the assessment of risk based on predicted changes outlined in climate change scenarios. 

Metrics

Success of this phase of the Project will be measured by: 

• The production of a Natural Asset Inventory that identifies which are the most critical for water supply protection. 
  • Metric 1: Number of Natural Assets that influence water supply level of service and water quality (n=>60).
  • Metric 2: Number of Natural Assets that are critical to water supply level of service and water quality (n=29). 
• The development of a methodology to evaluate the physical condition of natural assets and their ability to provide a continued Level of Service. 
  • Metric 1: Number of indicators that describe ecosystem function for each natural asset (groundwater level).
  • Metric 2: Number of qualitative or quantitative measures that can be used to measure the condition of an indicator (depth to groundwater; recharge rate).
  • Metric 3: Number of metrics that describe the spatial and temporary scale of indicator using GIS web mapping/analysis (distance from the ground surface to the water table). 
• Development of a methodology to assess the critical assets based on climate change predictions. 
  • Establish a rubric to determine the level of Asset Risk from Climate Change.
    • Metric 1: Likelihood- the chance of risk, or probability of occurrence, of a climate stressor based on quantitative and qualitative values.
    • Metric 2: Consequence- the effect of a hazard occurrence. The known or predicted outcome of an event based on the climate change stressor. 
  • Establish a rubric to determine the level of Asset Vulnerability to Climate Change. 
    • Metric 1: Exposure- the extent to which natural and built assets are in direct contact with hazards or their related climate change impacts.
    • Metric 2: Sensitivity- the degree to which a natural system is directly or indirectly affected by changes in climate conditions (e.g., temperature and precipitation) or specific climate change impacts (e.g., sea level rise, increased water temperature). 
  • Establish a rubric to determine the level of Asset Adaptability to Climate Change.
    • Metric 1: the ability of an asset to accommodate or recover from the impacts of climate hazards. 
• Calculation of the Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA) Score.
  • The VRA is broken down into two main components: a Risk Assessment and a Vulnerability Assessment. The Risk Assessment includes an evaluation of Likelihood and Consequence. The Vulnerability Assessment includes an evaluation of Impact and Adaptability. These two components come together to produce a final metric called the VRA Score.  Calculating one VRA rating for each natural asset allows for a side-by-side comparison and the prioritization of work where vulnerability in the water supply protection system resides. 

Results

This is Phase 1 of a two-phased project. Final Results are pending and expected June 30, 2025. Below are the interim results from Phase 1 of the project.  

Natural Asset Inventory 

A summary of completed reports by DWSP and other published studies related to forestry, climate change, and natural asset management, was compiled into a Compilation of Completed Works document. Using the Compilation of Completed Works document, GIS data, and subject matter experts (SMEs), forestry and other natural assets were identified within the Quabbin Reservoir, Ware River, and Wachusett Reservoir watersheds.  Sixty-three (63) total Natural assets were identified as providing a level of service for water supply protection.  These assets were divided into 7 asset categories:  Forest, Open water, water course (river/streams), wetlands, groundwater, soils and infrastructure.  Although this inventory of 63 natural assets was comprehensive and each natural asset contributes to the overall LOS at some level, the project team focused on those assets that were deemed to be critical. To sort these assets based on their criticality, the following three factors were considered for each asset: 

• Factor #1: Disruption to LOS if Natural Asset was lost: Assets that have the most influence on the core production of high-quality, unfiltered drinking water.
• Factor #2: Loss of Natural Asset’s Influence on Water Quality: If lost, could result in significant supply and/or water quality disruptions and/or substantial costs.
• Factor #3: Vulnerability to Climate Change: Highly vulnerable to events caused by climate change that could cause impairment of the ecological function.

In total, twenty-nine (29) critical assets were chosen and advanced to the Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA) evaluation. Figure 1 below shows the 29 Critical Assets organized by asset categories. 

Figure 1. - List of Critical Assets Sorted by Natural Asset Category

Development of a Condition Assessment Methodology

Undertaking a comprehensive condition assessment is a critical component of DCR’s ongoing efforts to maintain and improve the health of the forests and natural assets within their subwatersheds. A condition assessment methodology was developed as part of Phase I.  The condition assessment methodology was informed by the Canadian Standards Association (CSA) Group “Specifications for Natural Asset Inventories” published in June 2023. This methodology involves:

•  Identification of Indicators, Measures and Metrics
  • A compilation of indicators that best characterize the level or trend of ecosystem function over time by which to measure and assess the condition of each natural asset.
  • Recommendations on both qualitative and quantitative measures and metrics that can be used to evaluate asset condition.
• GIS Data Identification
  • Tying existing GIS data to condition indicators, measures, and metrics for Phase 2 condition assessment analysis.
  • Determine potential data gaps for condition assessment indicators, measures, and metrics. 

The Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA) Score

The VRA data for each natural asset described above in the Metrics section have been compiled into a single table for both the 2030 and 2070 Climate scenarios. The draft VRA scores below represent a preliminary scoring metric. 

Figure 2. - Phase 1 draft Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA) Scores 

Best Practices and Lessons Learned

Implementing the DWSP Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment (CCVA) project involves several key aspects, including addressing challenges and technical considerations. Here are some best practices and lessons learned: 

Foreseeable Challenges

• Data Availability and Quality: Address challenges related to data availability, quality, and relevance for assessing climate vulnerabilities at the sub-watershed scale. 
• Funding and Resources: Secure adequate funding and resources for using the comprehensive vulnerability assessment to address adaptation measures. 
• Policy and Regulatory Barriers: Potential policy and regulatory barriers may hinder the implementation of climate adaptation actions.  
• Community Resistance: Anticipate and address potential resistance or skepticism within communities regarding climate change impacts and the prioritization of adaptation measures.   
  • Tailored Communication: Use clear, accessible language and visuals to communicate complex climate information to stakeholders of varying backgrounds and literacy levels. 
  • Inclusive Approach: Ensure inclusivity by involving diverse stakeholders representing different demographics, sectors (e.g., agriculture, water resources, infrastructure), and levels of expertise. 
  • Transparency: Maintain transparency in decision-making processes and outcomes to build trust and accountability among stakeholders. 

Technical Considerations 

• Climate Modeling and Projections: Use up-to-date, robust climate models and downscaled projections to assess future climate risks specific to the project area.
• Risk Assessment Frameworks: Develop and apply appropriate frameworks for assessing climate risks, considering exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of systems and communities.
• Integration of Data: Integrate diverse datasets (e.g., climate data, socioeconomic data, ecosystem data) to provide a comprehensive understanding of vulnerabilities and adaptation options.
• Monitoring and Evaluation: Implement monitoring and evaluation frameworks to track the effectiveness of adaptation measures over time. 

Other Considerations 

•  Long-term Planning: Plan for long-term sustainability and resilience-building beyond the initial project phase, considering evolving climate risks and adaptation needs.
• Partnerships and Collaboration: Foster partnerships with relevant stakeholders, including, other agencies, conservation groups, academia, and other similar water suppliers, to leverage expertise and resources. 
• Adaptive Management: Adopt an adaptive management approach to iteratively adjust project strategies based on new information and changing conditions. 
• Capacity Development: Invest in building local capacity for climate adaptation planning and implementation to ensure sustainable outcomes.

By integrating these best practices and lessons learned into the design and implementation of climate change vulnerability projects, future project leaders can enhance adaptation techniques, increase effectiveness, promote resilience, and contribute to sustainable development in the face of climate change impacts. 

Project alignment with the ResilientMass Plan Priority Actions and Watershed Protection Planning

The ResilientMass Plan outlines priority actions aimed at enhancing Massachusetts' resilience to climate change impacts across various sectors. The DWSP Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment (CCVA) project responds to the Reduction in Clean Water Supply Statewide Priority Impact in the Infrastructure Sector of the ResilientMass Plan. The project aligns with ResilientMass Plan Goals 2, 3, 4, and 6. Respectively, supporting science-based and informed decision-making, securing resilient state assets and services, advancing implementation of adaptation actions for communities and ecosystems, and securing resilient and equitable infrastructure, ecosystems, and communities.  

This project aligns with several key priorities of the ResilientMass Plan, specifically: 

1. Risk Assessment and Planning
   • The CCVA project involves assessing climate change vulnerabilities across different aspects of watershed protection such as infrastructure, ecosystems, natural communities, and public health. This aligns with ResilientMass's priority of conducting comprehensive risk assessments to understand current and future climate risks. 
2. Adaptation and Resilience Planning
   • The primary goal of the DWSP CCVA project is to identify vulnerabilities to watershed protection and develop adaptation strategies to enhance resilience to climate impacts. This aligns directly with ResilientMass's priority of developing and implementing adaptation plans that integrate climate considerations into decision-making processes. 
3. Infrastructure and Natural Systems Resilience
   • ResilientMass focuses on enhancing the resilience of critical infrastructure and natural systems. The CCVA project assesses vulnerabilities of natural assets (e.g., wetlands, forests) and some important infrastructure (e.g., culverts, forest roads, water systems) to climate change, identifying priorities for adaptation measures to strengthen resilience. 
4. Public Health and Community Resilience
   • The DWSP Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment (CCVA) project examines how climate impacts affect the protection of a public water supply system providing abundant, clean water to 3.1 million people in 53 communities in the Commonwealth. It identifies vulnerabilities within the watersheds and prioritizes natural assets that are particularly vulnerable, aiming to bolster community resilience. The Division can leverage the project's findings to advocate for sustainable practices in natural resource management, such as watershed management, sustainable agriculture, and forest conservation. These practices enhance ecosystem resilience and ensure the delivery of critical ecosystem services vital for community well-being. This effort aligns with ResilientMass's goal of mitigating public health impacts and fostering community resilience. 
5. Policy and Governance Integration
   • ResilientMass emphasizes integrating climate resilience into policies, plans, and governance structures at all levels. A CCVA project provides essential data and insights to inform policy development and integrate climate considerations into decision-making processes, supporting ResilientMass's goals of mainstreaming resilience across sectors. 
6. Stakeholder Engagement and Collaboration
   • ResilientMass emphasizes the importance of engaging stakeholders and fostering collaboration among various sectors and levels of government. The results of the CCVA project will need to engage stakeholders such as local communities, government agencies, NGOs, and businesses to gather input, share knowledge, and develop adaptation strategies collaboratively. 

By aligning with the priorities of the ResilientMass Plan, the DWSP Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment project contributes to building a more resilient Massachusetts that is better prepared to withstand and adapt to the impacts of climate change, ensuring sustainable development and protection of its natural resources, local communities, and critical infrastructure. 

Integration into the Division’s Watershed Protection

The Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment (CCVA) can significantly contribute to the Division of Water Supply Protection's (DWSP) watershed protection planning in several important ways.  The CCVA will identify specific vulnerabilities of natural assets within the watershed to climate change impacts such as increased temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and extreme weather events. This information is crucial for understanding how climate change may affect water quality, quantity, and overall watershed health.  The assessment’s findings can help prioritize conservation efforts within the watershed. By identifying vulnerable natural assets such as wetlands, forests, and riparian areas, the DWSP can focus its conservation strategies on protecting these critical areas that contribute to water quality and ecosystem resilience.   

The CCVA’s findings can be integrated into the DWSP's Land Management Plan to update existing management practices and policies. This ensures that climate resilience considerations are incorporated into land use planning, land acquisition, forest management, and other conservation strategies.  Many environmental regulations, policies and financial resources increasingly require consideration of climate change impacts. Integrating CCVA findings into watershed protection planning helps the DWSP demonstrate compliance with regulatory requirements related to climate resilience and natural resource protection and may allow for additional funding resources to be acquired.   

Incorporating these climate resilience considerations ensures the sustainability of water supply protection efforts over the long term. It helps the DWSP adapt to evolving climate conditions and effectively watershed protection through the management of natural resources for future generations. 

Further Action

The DCR Water Supply Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment (CCVA) will continue in the next Fiscal year and build off the work that has already been completed.   

The preliminary VRA scores will be further evaluated and finalized in Phase 2. 

Phase 2 will finalize indicators, measures, and metrics as well as identify representative spatial data to refine the condition assessment of the watershed’s critical assets.  Data gaps will be identified for any indicators/measures or metrics that are unavailable.  Once these factors are established, we will use the Asset Condition Assessment Methodology to produce a single natural asset condition score for each natural asset.  See the Figure below for an example: 

Figure 3. - Condition Assessment Methodology using Forest Cover Example.

The Asset Conditions Assessment and VRA score will be added to an ESRI web map application to spatially show the condition and vulnerability of the watershed’s critical assets at a subwatershed scale.  The web application is under development and will be a major component of Phase 2.   

Utilization and Implementation

After completing the DWSP Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment (CCVA) of the watershed's natural assets, several key actions can be taken to translate the assessment findings into meaningful outcomes and enhance resilience: 

1. Develop an Action Plan: Based on the vulnerabilities identified in the CCVA, develop a comprehensive action plan outlining specific strategies and measures to address these vulnerabilities. The plan will prioritize actions based on their impact, feasibility, and urgency. 
2. Implement Adaptation Strategies: Begin implementing adaptation strategies identified in the action plan. This includes implementing sustainable land use practices, enhancing water management techniques, restoring natural habitats, or introducing climate-resilient management practices. 
3. Engage Stakeholders: Collaborate with watershed stakeholders such as local communities, other government agencies, NGOs, and private landowners to ensure buy-in and participation in implementing adaptation measures. Stakeholder engagement is crucial for fostering ownership and sustainability of resilience-building efforts. 
4. Monitor and Evaluate: Establish monitoring mechanisms to track the effectiveness of implemented adaptation measures. Regularly assess changes in vulnerability and resilience indicators to gauge progress and make necessary adjustments to the action plan. 
5. Integrate Findings into Planning and Policy: Use the CCVA findings to inform land use planning, zoning regulations, and policy development at watershed, regional, and if appropriate, state levels. Advocate for policies that support climate resilience and sustainable natural resource management practices. 
6. Build Capacity: Provide training and capacity-building opportunities to local stakeholders, community groups, and government officials on climate resilience, watershed management, and sustainable practices. Empower communities to take proactive steps towards resilience. 
7. Promote Awareness and Education: Raise awareness among the public about climate change impacts on watersheds and the importance of resilience-building efforts. Conduct outreach programs, workshops, and educational campaigns to inform and engage community members. 
8. Secure Funding and Resources: Identify and secure funding opportunities to support the implementation of adaptation measures and ongoing monitoring efforts. Leverage partnerships and collaboration to access additional resources and expertise.
9. Adapt and Learn: Adopt an adaptive management approach to continuously learn from experiences, refine strategies, and adapt to changing climate conditions and community needs. Flexibility and responsiveness are key to effective long-term resilience. 
10. Document and Share Lessons Learned: Document successes, challenges, and lessons learned throughout the CCVA process. Share findings with other communities, organizations, and stakeholders to contribute to broader knowledge sharing and foster collective resilience-building efforts. 

By taking these actions after completing the CCVA of the watershed's natural assets, communities can effectively enhance resilience to climate change impacts, protect critical ecosystems, and ensure sustainable water resource management for future generations.