The 101 cities and towns of MAPC’s Greater Boston region include a wide range of communities, from the urban core to semi-rural suburbs. This region contains half the state’s population and is at the center of the housing crisis. One of many causes of the housing crisis is decades of housing demand that outpaced supply. Across Greater Boston can be found various combinations of oppressive cost burden, high levels of evictions, unattainable homeownership, lack of rental units, people experiencing homelessness, overcrowding, and unhealthy conditions. Looking forward, the region will need to accommodate an estimated 93,000 additional households over the next ten years. After factoring in additional homes for sale or rent, the region needs to add at least 121,000 homes to the available housing supply over a decade, equivalent to 8.5% of the existing housing stock. Most of the net demand will be for smaller units at lower-income levels.
Regional Conditions
MAPC’s Greater Boston region contains 101 cities and towns including Boston, the state capital and biggest economic center in the state. The region includes most of the communities inside the I-495 corridor. The region is a hub for learning, research, and innovation centered around major universities, hospitals, and research institutions, but including a whole ecosystem of other educational institutions and commercial enterprises. There is a wide range of community types in the region including dense urban cities of the Inner Core, streetcar suburbs, historic towns, semi-rural communities, and Gateway Cities. Given the size and diversity of the region, MAPC uses eight subregional committees to facilitate more direct communication and coordination with local government and organizations.
The most persistent housing challenge in the MAPC region is the high cost of housing, present across nearly every community and market in the region. According to recent research conducted by MAPC, “in today’s Boston Metro housing market, an annual income of nearly $200,000 is needed to afford a median-priced home. Renters struggle, too, to afford a place to live, with rent increases outpacing income growth: the 2017-2021 ACS reflects that a record 51% of Greater Boston renters spend more than 30%—and more than 25% spend more than 50%—of their income on housing costs.” One of the many drivers of the cost of housing in the region is a lack of supply fueled by decades of underproduction.
Though some progress has been made to reduce zoning barriers, housing production still lags well behind the targets needed to support the region’s continued growth. According to data collected by MAPC for the Metropolitan Mayors Coalition Housing Task Force, even the region’s Inner Core is producing just 63% of the new units needed each year to meet its 2030 production target. Communities that were once considered more affordable have seen rapid increases in the cost of housing as intense competition drives prices higher and incentivizes acquisitions and upgrades of existing units, forces households to remain in homes that no longer meet their needs or living in substandard units.
Outside the Inner Core, many suburbs lack housing choices other than expensive single-family homes. This is generally due to long-standing zoning policies that prohibit multifamily housing, and it has resulted in rapidly increasing homeownership costs that limit access for new residents and threaten the ability of long-term residents and older adults to remain in their homes and communities. Many municipalities in the region have started to address this by adopting zoning compliant with Section 3A, though more is needed.
There is a profound shortage of deed-restricted affordable units, especially for renters at the lowest incomes. A recent analysis by MAPC and Housing Navigator found that there were 104,000 Extremely Low Income (ELI) renters without access to an affordable unit in the region, 59,000 Very Low Income (VLI) renter households, and 50,000 Low Income (LI) renters.
Projections and Housing Needs
The population of Greater Boston grew steadily after 1990 and accelerated after 2010 when the number of residents jumped 9.2% over a decade. In the next ten years, growth rates are likely to slow due to a variety of factors: greater levels of domestic outmigration, uncertainty regarding international migration, low birth rates, and Baby Boomer mortality. As a result, UMDI projects that the region’s population is likely to grow between 1.2% to 3.6% between 2025 and 2035.
Greater Boston is projected to see population growth of 2.3% (78,000 people) over ten years according to the Middle Series projections used for this plan.
Like all other regions, Greater Boston will see a substantial increase in the number of older adults, projected to increase by nearly 14%. The region also has a sizeable Millennial population and is projected to continue attracting younger residents to its schools and vibrant communities; unlike in many other regions, the population under 50 is projected to rise, if slowly.
The number of households in Greater Boston is projected to grow by 93,300, or 6.3%, in the Statewide Housing Plan projections which account for demographic demand resulting from smaller households as well as latent demand, families in shelter, and overcrowded families.
Two age groups are likely to see household growth: the number of 35 – 55-year-old households will grow by 63,000 as Millennials age into that bracket (along with changing housing needs); and the 70+ group could grow by 64,000 as Baby Boomers age into their Oldest Adult years. Meanwhile, the number of householders age 55 – 69 could fall by around 36,000 as Gen X ages into the range previously occupied by the much larger Baby Boomer generation.
Greater Boston is likely to see growth across all household types and income levels. About 42% of the net increase in households will be among those with incomes less than $35,000 per year. This includes about 24,000 older adult households, 9,000 families with children, and 9,000 adult non-senior households without children.
Households with incomes between $35,000 - $75,000 make up the next largest portion of household growth, about 28% of the total. Unlike most other regions, Greater Boston is likely to see some net increase in households at higher income levels, including growth of higher income families with children. Higher income non-senior households without children are projected to decline as high-earner Millennials form families and as Baby Boomer empty nesters move into their older years, when they have lower incomes.
In addition to the units needed to accommodate household growth, Greater Boston needs 28,000 homes for sale or rent to achieve a healthy vacancy rate. Together with the increase in households, the region needs to add 121,000 homes to the available supply over the next ten years, equivalent to 8.5% of the existing housing stock. Under the High Series projection, the region could see as many as 108,000 new households and would need as many as 137,000 additional homes.
Greater Boston Housing Strategies
To address the housing crisis in Metro Boston through regional collaboration and mutual support, MAPC helped establish the Metropolitan Mayors Coalition (MMC) in 2001. In 2017, MMC launched a Regional Housing Taskforce to establish a regional housing production goal and identify strategies to achieve that goal throughout the 17 participating communities. Nearly all the 97 MAPC communities subject to Section 3A have adopted or are working to adopt MBTA Communities Zoning to reduce barriers to multifamily housing production across community types in the region, focusing on growth and development near transit centers. Many subregions within MAPC are considering Regional Housing Shared Services offices to supplement local capacity for affordable housing production and administration and to increase regional collaboration towards shared housing goals. MetroCommon 2050, Greater Boston’s regional land use and policy plan, identifies housing as one of five major action areas and articulates a suite of policy recommendations and strategies to address displacement, affordability, and production.
External Resources:
- Metropolitan Area Planning Council: www.mapc.org
- MetroCommon: Greater Boston’s Long-Range Regional Plan: https://metrocommon.mapc.org/
- Metro Mayors Coalition Regional Housing Task Force https://housingtaskforce.mapc.org