The 101 cities and towns of MAPC’s Greater Boston region include a wide range of communities, from the urban core to semi-rural suburbs. This region contains half the state’s population and is the epicenter of the housing crisis. For decades, housing demand has increasingly outpaced supply. Across its communities can be found various combinations of crushing cost burden, high levels of evictions, unattainable homeownership, lack of rental units, people experiencing homelessness, overcrowding, and unhealthy conditions. This plan anticipates the region needs to accommodate 93,000 additional households over the next ten years. After factoring in additional homes for sale or rent, the region needs to add at least 121,000 homes to the available housing supply over a decade, equivalent to 8.5% of the existing housing stock.
Greater Boston Housing Overview
The Greater Boston region of the Metropolitan Area Planning Council (MAPC) contains 101 cities and towns including and surrounding Boston, the state capitol and biggest economic center in the state. The region includes most of the communities inside the I-495 corridor. The region is a hub for learning, research, and innovation centered around major universities but including a whole ecosystem of other educational institutions and commercial enterprises. There is a wide range of community types in the region from the dense urban cities of the Inner Core to streetcar suburbs to historic towns, semi-rural communities, and Gateway Cities. Given the size and diversity of the region, MAPC uses eight subregional committees to facilitated more direct communication and coordination with local government and organizations.
The most persistent housing challenge in the MAPC region is the high cost of housing, present across nearly every community and market in the region. According to recent research conducted by MAPC, “in today’s Boston Metro housing market, an annual income of nearly $200,000 is needed to afford a median-priced home.[1],[2] Renters struggle, too, to afford a place to stay, with rent increases outpacing income growth: a record 51% of Greater Boston renters spend more than 30%—and more than a quarter spend more than half—of their income on housing costs.”[3] The cost of housing in the region is driven, in large part, by a lack of supply fueled by decades of underproduction.
Though some progress has been made to reduce zoning barriers, housing production still lags well behind the targets needed to support the region’s continued growth. According to data collected by MAPC for the Metropolitan Mayors Coalition Housing Task Force, even the region’s inner core is producing just 63% of the new units needed each year to meet its 2030 production target.[1]Communities that were once considered more affordable have seen rapid increases in the cost of housing as intense competition drives prices higher and incentivizes spectulative 'flipping' of existing lower-cost homes.
Outside the Inner Core, many suburbs lack housing choices other than expensive single-family homes. This is generally due to long-standing zoning policies that prohibit multifamily housing, and it has resulted in rapidly increasing homeownership costs that limit access for new residents and threaten the ability of long-term residents and older adults to remain in their homes and communities.
There is a profound shortage of deed restricted units, especially for renters at the lowest incomes. A recent analysis by MAPC and Housing Navigator found that there were 104,000 ELI renters without access to an affordable unit in the region, 59,000 VLI renter households, and 50,000 LI renters.
Greater Boston Housing Demand
The population of Greater Boston grew steadily after 1990 and accelerated after 2010 when the number of residents jumped 9.2% over a decade. In the next ten years, growth rates are likely to slow due to a variety of factors: greater levels of domestic outmigration, uncertainty regarding international migration, low birth rates, and Baby Boomer mortality. As a result, UMDI projects that the region’s population is likely to grow between 1.2% to 3.6% out to 2035.
Greater Boston is projected to see population growth of 2.3% (78,000 people) over ten years according to the Middle Series projections used for this plan.
Like all other regions, Greater Boston will see a big increase in the number of Older Adults, projected to increase by nearly 14%. The region also has a sizeable Millennial population and is projected to continue attracting younger residents to its schools and vibrant communities; unlike many other regions the population under 50 is projected to rise, if slowly.
The number of households in Greater Boston is projected to grow by 93,300, or 6.3%, in the Competing and Growing scenario, which includes demographic demand as well as components for latent demand, families in shelter, and overcrowded families.
Two age groups are likely to see household growth: the number of 35 – 55 year-old households will grow by 63,000 as Millennials age into that bracket (along with changing housing needs); and the 70+ group could grow by 64,000 as Baby Boomers age into their Oldest Adult years. Meanwhile, the number of householders age 55 – 69 could fall by around 36,000 as Gen X ages into the range previously occupied by the much larger Baby Boomer generation.
Greater Boston is likely to see growth across all household types and income levels. About 42% of the net increase in households will be among those with incomes less than $35,000 per year. This includes about 24,000 Older Adult households, 9,000 families with children, and 9,000 adult non-senior households without children.
Households with incomes between $35,000 - $75,000 make up the next largest portion of household growth, about 28% of the total. Unlike other regions, Greater Boston is likely to see some net increase in households at the higher income levels, including growth of higher income families with children. Higher income non-senior households without children are projected to decline as high-earner Millennials form families and as Baby Boomer empty nesters move into their senior years.
Greater Boston needs an additional 28,000 homes for sale or rent in order to achieve a healthy vacancy rate. Together with the increase in households, the region needs to add 121,000 homes to the available supply over the next ten years, equivalent to 8.5% of the existing housing stock. Under the High Series projection, the region could see as many as 108,000 new households and would need as many as 137,000 additional homes available.
Greater Boston Housing Strategies
To address the housing crisis in Metro Boston through regional collaboration and mutual support, MAPC helped establish the Metropolitan Mayors Coalition (MMC) in 2001. In 2017, MMC launched a Regional Housing Taskforce to establish a regional housing production goal and identify strategies to achieve that goal throughout the 17 participating communities. Over 75 of the MAPC communities have adopted or are working to adopt MBTA Communities Zoning to reduce barriers to multifamily housing production across community types in the region, focusing on growth and development near transit centers. Many subregions within MAPC are considering Regional Housing Shared Services offices to supplement local capacity for affordable housing production and administration and to increase regional collaboration towards shared housing goals.
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