The Merrimack Valley is a diverse region that includes high-income suburbs and Gateway Cities. Overcrowding and cost burden are major issues in the region. The population is projected to grow, and household forecasts are also boosted by substantial latent demand. EOHLC projects that the region’s housing stock needs to grow by 13.5% over the next decade to achieve housing abundance, the highest growth rate of any region.
Merrimack Valley Housing Overview
Located in the northeast corner of Massachusetts, the Merrimack Valley region includes 15 municipalities ranging from rural and small towns such as Boxford and West Newbury to Gateway Cities including Haverhill, Lawrence, and Methuen. The region’s proximity to Greater Boston, coupled with its own economic and natural assets, has made the Merrimack Valley an attractive place to live and work. As a result, the region has seen population and economic growth, resulting in a greater need for housing.
Moreover, the region exhibits substantial disparities in housing supply and housing needs across its various urban centers and suburban towns. According to the 2018 Merrimack Valley Regional Housing plan, there was a difference of $105,000 in median income between Lawrence ($35,000) and Boxford ($140,000) in 2015. Despite moderate increases in household incomes, this gap has widened to over $113,000 on the 2019-2023 ACS, with an estimated median household income of $58,000 in Lawrence and over $175,000 in Newbury. Outside of Lawrence, most of the region lacks a diversity of housing choices and many experience challenges related to housing choice and affordability as a result. The Merrimack Valley region is primarily comprised of single-family units – almost 60% of homes in the region are attached or detached single-family homes. Additionally, cities in the region have much higher shares of renter-occupied units compared to many towns in the region. For example, the city of Lawrence has the highest percentage of renters (69.7%), followed by the city of Haverhill (39.7%).
Renter cost burden in the Merrimack Valley is higher than the state: an estimated 56% of renters are cost-burdened (compared to 50.2% statewide), and 26.2% are severely cost-burdened. Overcrowding is a significant issue in the Merrimack Valley. As of 2017 -2021, nearly 3,000 households—2.6% of the total—have more than two occupants per bedroom. This is the highest share of any region in the state and reflects the lack of available and affordable housing supply for larger households. The region doesn’t necessarily lack family-sized units—there are an estimated 66,000 homes with three or more bedrooms. However, 36% of those large units —24,000 homes— are occupied by households of only one or two people.
Projections and Housing Needs
The population of the Merrimack Valley region has been growing steadily over the past three decades, increasing from 288,000 in 1990 to 371,000 in 2020, an increase of 29%. UMDI projects that the region’s population will continue to grow over the next decade, though at a somewhat slower rate of between 2.6% and 5.2%. (Visit the Future Housing Demand section to learn how these projections were developed.) The middle series projections used for the Statewide Housing Plan anticipate growth of 3.8% for the region, an increase of 14,300 residents.
The region is projected to see a decline in all age groups under 40, increases in the 35- to 49-year-old population (a demographic attracted to the region by its relative affordability and proximity to Metro Boston job centers.) All older adult age groups are projected to grow by substantial amounts.
The number of households in the region is projected to grow by 11% over the next ten years, an increase of 16,000 households. More than a quarter of this growth (4,700 households) is new households formed by people already in the region: families currently living in overcrowded and doubled-up conditions, young adults living with parents, and families in shelter. These dynamics are driving an increase in households headed by all age groups under the age of 50, even as the total population for some of those groups decline. Meanwhile, the number of householders aged 55 to 64 will decline by 3,900 as the youngest Boomers age out of that bracket, and the region will see an increase of nearly 10,000 householders 65+, a 23.5% increase.
Almost half of net new households are expected to have incomes of less than $35,000 per year, and another 29% are projected to have incomes of $35,000 - $75,000 per year. In total, EOHLC projects an increase of 12,200 households earning less than $75,000 per year, including 2,500 families with children and 4,800 seniors living alone.
After factoring in the 3,400 additional for-sale or for-rent homes needed to achieve a healthy vacancy rate, EOHLC estimates the Merrimack Valley region needs to add 19,500 homes to the stock over the next 10 years to achieve housing abundance. This represents a 13.5% increase over 2020 housing stock.
Planning and Policy Efforts
The Regional Housing Plan outlines a variety of strategies aimed at improving access to affordable housing, including the development of a Regional Housing Services program to build capacity and encourage regional collaboration towards shared housing goals. Starting in 2023, MVPC began updating HPPs for all 15 cities and towns in the region. This effort is coming to a close in 2025—several MVPC communities already have new plans approved by EOHLC, and the remaining are completing local adoption by their boards. All 15 cities and towns should have approved HPPs by the end of 2025.
In the region’s urban centers of Lawrence and Haverhill, the cities hope to leverage the resources available to Gateway Cities to support housing initiatives, such as the CommonWealth Builder program that supports affordable homeownership opportunities for low- and moderate-income households. Other strategies to support affordable housing production include creating and maintaining an inventory of publicly-owned land suitable for affordable housing development, as well as identifying opportunities to convert or retrofit existing buildings for affordable housing at a variety of scales.
External Resources
- Merrimack Valley Planning Commission: https://mvpc.org/
- 2023-2028 Merrimack Valley Comprehensive Economic Development Strategy: Embracing Resilience & Equity for Prosperous Region. https://mvpc.org/wp-content/uploads/Merrimack-Valley-CEDS-2023-2028.pdf
- 2018 Merrimack Valley Regional Housing Plan. https://mvpc.org/wp-content/uploads/MV-Housing-Plan-full-final-version-1.pdf