The Merrimack Valley is a diverse region that includes high-income suburbs and Gateway Cities. Overcrowding and cost burden are major issues in the region. The population is projected to grow and household forecasts are also boosted by substantial latent demand. EOHLC projects that the region’s housing stock needs to grow by 13.5% over the next decade to achieve housing abundance, the highest growth rate of any region for this plan.
Merrimack Valley Housing Overview
Located in the northeast corner of Massachusetts, the Merrimack Valley region includes 15 municipalities ranging from rural and small towns such as Boxford and West Newbury to Gateway Cities including Haverhill, Lawrence, and Methuen. The region’s proximity to Greater Boston, coupled with its own economic and natural assets, has made Merrimack Valley an attractive place to live and work. As a result, the region has seen population and economic growth, resulting in a greater need for housing.
Moreover, the region exhibits substantial disparities in housing supply and housing needs across its various urban centers and suburban towns. According to the 2018 Merrimack Valley Regional Housing plan, there was an over $100,000 difference in median income between Lawrence ($34,852) and Boxford ($140,268).[1] Despite moderate increases in household incomes, by 2023 this gap has widened to over $160,000, with an estimated median household income of $64,450 in Lawrence and over $225,000 in Newbury.[2] Outside of Lawrence, most of the region lacks a diversity of housing choices and many experience challenges related to housing choice and affordability as a result. The Merrimack Valley region is primarily comprised of single-family units – almost 60% of homes in the region are attached or detached single-family homes.[3] Additionally, cities in the region have much higher shares of renter-occupied units compared to many towns in the region. For example, the city of Lawrence has the highest percentage of renters (69.7%), followed by the city of Haverhill (39.7%).
Renter cost burden in Merrimack Valley is higher than the state: an estimated 56% of renters are cost-burdened (compared to 50.2% statewide), and 26.2% are severely cost-burdened. Overcrowding is a significant issue in Merrimack Valley. As of 2017 -2021, nearly 3,000 households—2.6% of the total—have more than two occupants per bedroom. This is the highest share of any region in the state and reflects the lack of available and affordable housing supply for larger households. The region doesn’t necessarily lack family-sized units—there are an estimated 66,000 homes with three or more bedrooms. However, 36% of those large units –24,000 homes— are occupied by households of only one or two people.
Merrimack Valley Housing Demand
The population of the Merrimack Valley region has been growing steadily over the past three decades, increasing from 288,000 in 1990 to 371,000 in 2020, an increase of 29%. UMDI projects that the region’s population will continue to grow over the next decade, though at a somewhat slower rate of between 2.6% and 5.2%. The Competing and Growing scenario anticipates growth of 3.8% for the region, an increase of 14,300 residents.
The region is projected to see a decline in all age groups under 40, increases in the 35 to 49 year old population (a demographic attracted to the region by its relative affordability and proximity to Metro Boston job centers.) All Older Adult age groups are projected to grow by substantial amounts.
The number of households in the region is projected to grow by 11% over the next ten years, an increase of 16,000 households. More than a quarter of this growth (4,700 households) is new households created by people already in the region: families currently living in overcrowded and doubled-up conditions; young adults living with parents, and families in shelter. These dynamics are driving an increase in households headed by all age groups under the age of 50, even as the total population for some of those groups declines.
The number of householders age 55 to 64 will decline by 3,900 as the youngest Boomers age out of that bracket; and the region will see an increase of nearly 10,000 householders 65+, an increase of 23.5% in the number of Older Adult households.
Almost half of the net new households are expected to have incomes of less than $35,000 per year, and another 29% are projected to have incomes of $35,000 - $75,000 per year. In total, there is a projected increase of 12,200 households earning less than $75,000 per year, including 2,500 families with children and 4,800 seniors living alone.
After factoring in the 3,400 additional for-sale or for-rent homes needed to achieve a healthy vacancy rate, EOHLC estimates the Merrimack Valley region needs to add 19,500 homes to the stock over the next 10 years to achieve housing abundance. This represents a 13.5% increase over the 2020 housing stock.
Merrimack Valley Housing Strategies
The Regional Housing Plan outlines a variety of strategies aimed at improving access to affordable housing, including the development of a Regional Housing Services program to build capacity and encourage regional collaboration towards shared housing goals.[1] In the region’s urban centers of Lawrence and Haverhill, the cities hope to leverage the resources available to Gateway Cities to support housing initiatives, such as the CommonWealth Builder program that supports affordable homeownership opportunities for low- and moderate-income households.[2] Other strategies to support affordable housing production include creating and maintaining an inventory of publicly-owned land suitable for affordable housing development, as well as identifying opportunities to convert or retrofit existing buildings for affordable housing at a variety of scales.
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