The NMCOG region, also known as Greater Lowell, consists of nine municipalities, including Lowell, a Gateway City, and its surrounding suburbs, which vary from established suburbs to more rural suburbs. The NMCOG communities have varying densities, demographics, and costs, encompassing rural, urban, and suburban communities with different housing dynamics. All nine communities, however, are experiencing a housing shortage like the rest of the Commonwealth. There is high demand for housing and a limited inventory, which has caused prices to increase rapidly. In all the region’s municipalities, the income needed to afford the median home or rent (while not being cost burdened) is higher than the median income of existing residents. Housing Plan projections anticipate the region needs to add at least 9,800 new homes to the year-round supply over ten years, or as many as 11,100 with higher population growth. NMCOG’s regional housing plan At Home in Greater Lowell accounts for even more measures of unmet housing need. As a result, it sets even higher targets, identifying a need for 19,250 homes over fifteen years (2020-2035). Achieving any of these targets will require concerted efforts to open up new housing opportunities. Higher levels of production will expand housing choices for Greater Lowell residents and contribute to the state’s housing needs.
Regional Context
NMCOG’s proximity to the Greater Boston area influences its housing market as there is access to jobs with higher wages, especially since it is connected to Boston via commuter rail in Lowell and Billerica. Thus, demand for housing from workers earning Boston wages has driven up housing costs in Greater Lowell. As in other regions, housing costs are higher than residents earning near the region’s median income can afford. Over the past decade, the median sales price of a home has increased by more than 60%, while median income has increased by only around 10%. The residents in the region are feeling the effects of these higher housing costs as indicated by cost burden; nearly one-third of households in the region are considered cost burdened, meaning they pay more than 30% of their income on housing costs (45% of renter households are cost burdened and 25% of owner households are cost burdened).
Northern Middlesex County Housing Demand
NMCOG’s population grew at a rapid clip between 2010 and 2020, increasing by 8.3%. In the coming decade, the region’s population is projected to stabilize, with an increase or decrease of 1.6% or less across all three scenarios. As with the state overall, the region is projected to see declines in all groups under the age of 35 and offsetting increases in the number of older adults.
Despite the stable population, the number of households in the Greater Lowell region is projected to increase by 6.6% from 2025 – 2035. About one-third of this growth is attributable to existing households who are overcrowded, doubled up, homeless, or in otherwise unsuitable situations. As with most other regions, older adults are the fastest-growing household segment. The 7,300-household increase in households headed by an older adult constitutes 94% of net household increase. The region is also projected to see substantial increases (7,300 households) in households headed by people age 35 – 54.
Increases are projected across almost all household groups and incomes, except for higher-income, under-65 households without children, which are projected to decline. Notably, there is a projected increase in family households across all income groups. The region is projected to experience an increase of 4,800 older adults with incomes below $75,000, including 2,200 extremely low-income older adults living alone.
EOHLC projects that the NMCOG/Greater Lowell region needs to add 9,800 homes to the year-round stock over the next decade to achieve housing abundance, an increase of 8.3% over the 2020 housing stock. This includes about 2,000 homes available for sale or rent and 2,400 homes for households that are currently overcrowded, doubled up, experiencing homelessness, or in otherwise unsuitable conditions. Under the high-growth scenario, the region could need as many as 11,100 homes, an increase of 9.4%.
NMCOG also engaged the UMass Donahue Institute to develop population and housing demand scenarios specific to the Greater Lowell region. Those projections use the same core data sources as the EOHLC forecasts with slightly different assumptions about population changes and unmet housing needs. Based on those projections, the regional housing plan identifies a need for as many as 19,250 homes over the fifteen years from 2020-2035. While more ambitious, this goal is not incompatible with EOHLC’s projections. In fact, achieving that level of production would further boost options and affordability in the region and would contribute substantially to statewide needs.
Planning and Policy Efforts
At this time, NMCOG is in the process of completing Phase 1 of their regional housing plan, At Home in Greater Lowell, which includes multiple convenings, data collection and analysis, as well as a storytelling component.
At Home in Greater Lowell engagement processes have led to the creation of six main goals that include various strategies the region can deploy to address challenges of housing affordability and availability. For example, strategies to increase housing production (Goal 1) are to implement zoning changes that encourage production and to create a regional plan for adaptive reuse of underutilized properties. Some of the strategies to support other goals are to develop a digital regional rental housing inventory and to expand first-time homebuying programs.
Additionally, NMCOG has recently piloted a Regional Housing Services Office to monitor local subsidized housing inventories and support Housing Production Plan implementation. Eight of the nine communities in the region have adopted and EOHLC approved Housing Production Plans. The agency has assisted five of its seven communities in adopting MBTA Communities Zoning Districts and is supporting the Town of Westford in advancing a large housing development in one of its MBTA Communities subdistricts.
External Resources:
- Northern Middlesex Council of Governments: https://www.nmcog.org/
- At Home in Greater Lowell: A housing strategy for the Greater Lowell region. https://www.nmcog.org/ahgl