The NMCOG region, also known as Greater Lowell, consists of nine municipalities, including Lowell, a Gateway City, and its surrounding suburbs, which vary from established suburbs to more rural suburbs. The NMCOG communities have varying densities, demographics, and costs, encompassing rural, urban, and suburban communities with different housing dynamics. All nine communities, however, are experiencing a housing shortage like the rest of the state. There is high demand for housing and a limited inventory, which has caused prices to increase rapidly. In all the region’s municipalities, the income needed to afford the median home or rent (while not being cost burdened) is higher than the median income of existing residents. Housing Plan projections anticipate the region needs to 9,800 new homes to the year-round supply over ten years to achieve housing abundance, an increase of 8.3%.
Northern Middlesex Housing Overview
NMCOG’s proximity to the Greater Boston area influences its housing market as there is access to jobs with higher wages, especially since it is connected to Boston via commuter rail in Lowell and Billerica. Thus, demand for housing from workers earning Boston wages has driven up housing costs in Greater Lowell and like other regions, there is a disparity in the region’s median income compared to housing cost. Over the past decade, the median sales price of a home has increased by more than 60%, while median income has increased by only around 10%. The residents in the region are feeling the effects of these higher housing costs as indicated by cost burden; nearly one-third of households in the region are considered cost burdened, meaning they pay more than 30% of their income on housing costs (45% of renter households are cost burdened and 25% of owner households are cost burdened).
Northern Middlesex County Housing Demand
NMCOG’s population grew at a rapid clip between 2010 and 2020, increasing by 8.3%. In the coming decade, the region’s population is projected to stabilize, with an increase or decrease of 1.6% or less across all three scenarios. As with the state overall, the region is projected to see declines in all groups under the age of 35; and offsetting increases in the number of Older Adults.
Despite the stable population, the number of households in the Greater Lowell region is projected to increase by 6.6% from 2025 – 2035. About one-third of this growth is attributable to existing households who are overcrowded, doubled up, homeless, or in otherwise unsuitable situations. As with most other regions, Older Adults are the fastest growing household segment. The 7,300 increase in households headed by an Older Adult make up 94% of net household increase. The region is also projected to substantial increases in households headed by people age 35 – 54, which are also projected to grow by 7,300.
Increases are projected across almost all household groups and incomes, with the exception of higher-income, non-senior households without children, which are projected to decline. Notably, there is a projected increase in family households across all income groups. The region is projected to experience an increase of 4,800 older adults with incomes below $75,000, including 2,200 extremely low-income older adults living alone.
EOHLC projects that the NMCOG/Greater Lowell region needs to add 9,800 homes to the year-round stock over the next decade in order to achieve housing abundance, an increase of 8.3% over the 2020 housing stock. This includes about 2,000 homes available for sale or rent and 2,400 homes for households that are currently overcrowded, doubled up, homeless, or in otherwise unsuitable conditions. Under the high-growth scenario, the region could need as many as 11,100 homes, an increase of 9.4%.
Northern Middlesex Housing Strategies
At this time, NMCOG is in the process of updating their region housing plan, At Home in Greater Lowell, which includes multiple convenings, data collection and analysis, as well as a storytelling component. Engagement processes have led to the creation of six main goals that include various strategies the region can deploy to address challenges of housing affordability and availability.[2] For example, strategies to increase housing production (Goal 1) are to implement zoning changes that encourage production and to create a regional plan for adaptive reuse of underutilized properties. Some of the strategies to support other goals are to develop a digital regional rental housing inventory and to expand first-time homebuying programs.
[Reviewers: edit or comment on this text here: Regional Summaries.docx]