Future Housing Demand in Massachusetts

The prior chapters have described the breadth and complexity of Massachusetts’ housing crisis, much of which is attributable to that lack of supply. A key question for policy makers is, how many new homes are needed to help solve this crisis?  As will be addressed in the section on Strategies, production of new homes is not the only solution to the housing crisis, but it is an essential one.  Working with a team of researchers, EOHLC forecasted future population and household scenarios, and estimated the number of homes that would be needed under each one.  Key findings of this exercise include the following:

• Current demographic trends indicate that Massachusetts may see no population growth from 2025 – 2035. Over that time, a half million Millennials and Gen Z will be forming households. Even with no population growth, Massachusetts needs 73,000 additional homes to accommodate that demographic demand.
• An additional 116,000 homes are needed to accommodate overcrowded & doubled-up families, young adults living with parents or roommates, and families and individuals currently living in shelters; and to achieve a healthy vacancy rate of about 2.6%

If the state can retain 10% of the young adults moving out of state, it can prevent declines in the resident labor force, but it will need an additional 36,000 homes.