The Montachusett region contains a range of Gateway Cities, developing suburbs, and rural towns. The housing stock is relatively affordable compared to the rest of the state, and the region has attracted some new residents drawn to the affordability of the homes as well as the proximity to Metro Boston job opportunities. This has caused home prices to rise but the region remains a good deal relative to other areas, and the incidence of cost burden is slightly lower than it is elsewhere in the state. While the aging of the population is likely to result in a stable or declining population over the coming decade, the number of households will continue to grow, and more homes will be needed to meet demand. EOHLC forecasts that the region needs to add 6,400 homes to the available supply over the next decade, an increase of about 6.1%.
Regional Conditions
Located in greater north central Massachusetts, the Montachusett region has 22 municipalities, ranging from mixed-use urban centers such as Fitchburg to small and rural towns such as Ashby. The region’s character and community development has been shaped by the historic dominance of the manufacturing industry. The region has the highest concentration of manufacturing jobs in the state. The decline of the manufacturing sector has opened new economic opportunities, such as expanding the region’s tourism sector; however, the industrial character has left a lasting impact on the region’s community and housing development.
The dominance and decline of industry are also reflected in the Gateway City designations of two cities within the region: Fitchburg and Leominster. Both cities are economic hubs for the region, with proximity to transportation hubs, but face unique housing challenges.
The region is relatively affordable compared to the rest of the state: just over half of 2023 home sales were attainable for a four-person middle-income household (compared to 36% statewide.) Severe renter cost burden is also slightly lower than the statewide figure (21.1% vs 25.2% statewide.) Both stats account for the relatively low incomes in the region compared to the rest of the state. However, the region’s relative affordability, commuter rail connections to Boston, and proximity to major job hubs along I-495 and in Worcester have attracted an influx of new residents, creating tensions in the region’s inventory supply.
Projections and Housing Needs
The population of the Montachusett region has been growing at a rapid clip, adding 6% from 2010 – 2020. The totals mask a significant shift in the population age structure. From 2000 – 2025, the number of residents under 50 dropped by 19,500, while the number 50 and over grew by 42,100. Older adults now make up one quarter of the region’s population, up from one-tenth back in 2000.
The Middle Series projection shows a population decline of 1.3%, or 3,400 people from 2025 - 2035. If more young people, drawn by cheaper housing costs, move to the region as assumed in the High Series projections, the population might increase by about 0.4% over that same period.
Whether the population is stable or declining, the Montachusett region will need more homes. The number of households is projected to grow by 4,900, or 4.9%. The region is also projected to see an increase of 4,200 householders age 40 – 55, attracted by the region’s relatively affordable housing stock; and an increase of 7,500 householders 70 and older. All other age groups are projected to decline by a total of 6,900 households.
The region is projected to see a large increase in the number of low-income Older Adult households, including an additional 2,300 Older Adults living alone with incomes below $35,000. In total there are projected to be an additional 5,200 Older Adult households with incomes below $75,000 per year. The number of non-senior non-family households is projected to decline overall, and especially at higher income levels. The region may see no net increase in households with incomes over $125,000 per year.
In total, the Montachusett region needs a projected 6,400 additional homes over the next decade, an increase of 6.1%. This is the number needed to accommodate approximately 2,500 new households forming, satisfy an estimated latent demand of 2,400 homes, and add 1,400 homes to the supply available for sale or rent. The high series population projection, which assumes higher growth statewide and more migration to lower-cost regions such as Montachusett, would require housing stock growth of almost 8,100 homes, or 7.8%.
Planning and Policy Efforts
One way in which MRPC prioritizes the preservation and production of affordable housing is through the Montachusett Enterprise Center, Inc. (MEC), a nonprofit subsidiary focused on affordable housing production and job creation in the region. A reason for the organization’s success is due to MEC’s designation as the local receiver for abandoned and foreclosed properties, which pose a threat to public health and safety. A regional receivership program allows MEC to rehabilitate unused properties to meet health and building code standards and resell more quickly than a property owner might be able to do on their own.
For instance, the region is faced with environmental challenges, with 19 communities having brownfield sites. The amount of cleanup necessary varies by site, but the presence of hazardous substances or pollutants present additional challenges to housing development or adaptive reuse. Through MRPC’s Brownfields Program, the regional planning agency has made progress on brownfield remediation by leveraging Environmental Protection Agency funds. Redevelopment projects vary but include building affordable single-family housing units in Fitchburg and Gardner.
Unique Regional Circumstances
Devens was created by a special act of the Legislature (Chapter 498 of the Acts of 1993) to help provide an orderly and expeditious conversion and development of approximately 4,400 acres that were a portion of a former federal military base, Fort Devens, into a non-military-use area. Devens comprises land area within the historic boundaries of the Towns of Ayer, Harvard, and Shirley. Chapter 498 of the Acts of 1993 made the Massachusetts Government Land Bank (later merged into MassDevelopment) exclusively responsible for acquisition, control, maintenance, and redevelopment of Devens. To provide for orderly development, a long-term Reuse Plan and Zoning By-laws were adopted by the Massachusetts Government Land Bank and the Towns of Ayer, Harvard, and Shirley. The Reuse Plan and Zoning By-laws provided broad development goals and planned uses of the property and were passed at town meetings in the three towns. The legislation also established the Devens Enterprise Commission to function as the local regulatory and permit-granting authority for all new development within Devens to ensure development in a manner consistent with the Reuse Plan and Zoning By-laws.
Since the establishment of Devens, approximately 120 units of former military housing have been repurposed, and 136 new units of housing have been constructed within its boundaries. Devens currently has 256 units of residential and senior housing and approximately 950 residents. MassDevelopment is obligated to provide the same educational benefits and opportunities other Massachusetts residents enjoy, which MassDevelopment has typically done by contracting with one of the nearby school districts. Since 2012, MassDevelopment has contracted with the Harvard School District to educate students residing in Devens. In the 2023-24 academic year, there were 86 full-time and 10 transitional students attending the Hildreth Elementary and Bromfield (High) Schools and six out-of-district students.
Until recently, housing development in Devens was limited by the Reuse Plan to no more than 282 units. That housing cap was removed by the Legislature last year and the development of new housing on parcels already zoned for residential uses is governed by the Zoning By-laws, as approved by the three towns and MassDevelopment, and regulations promulgated by the Devens Enterprise Commission.
External Resources
- Montachusett Regional Planning Commission: https://www.mrpc.org/
- 2024 Comprehensive Economic Development Strategy: https://www.mrpc.org/comprehensive-economic-development-strategy-committee-mrceds