Estimated Lost Payments to Massachusetts State Aid Programs, 2011 through 2022

The following analysis extends previous estimates with some new assumptions in order to estimate lost payments since 2013.

Overview

Uber began operations in Massachusetts in 2011 and Lyft in 2013. This timeline raises questions about potential missed payments over the intervening decade. The following analysis extends previous estimates with some new assumptions in order to estimate lost payments since 2013.

Assuming a linear increase from 0 drivers in 2010 to 53,792 in 2019,³⁴ and using the number of TNC vehicle inspections for 2020, 2021, and 2022, Table 6 displays lost workers’ compensation, UI, and PFML payments per year. Lost payments were calculated by multiplying the number of drivers by the estimated annual amount arrived for each program: $228.76/driver per year for workers’ compensation,³⁵ and $271.88/driver per year for UI.³⁶ For PFML, the calculation is more laborious, as contributions began only on October 1, 2019, and rates do not necessarily stay unchanged from year to year.³⁷ Additionally, PFML contributions are capped at Social Security limits, although these limits are high and the assumption here is that no rideshare drivers earned income beyond these limits. Table 6 presents the evolution of PFML rates.

Table 6: PFML Rates by Year, 2019–2023³⁸

Year	PFML Contribution Rate	Income Cap for PFML Purposes39
2019	0.75%	$132,900
2020	0.75%	$137,700
2021	0.75%	$142,800
2022	0.68%	$147,000
2023	0.63%	$160,200

Using the previously mentioned figures for workers’ compensation and UI, and applying the yearly PFML rates from Table 6 to the total amount of driver earnings, it is possible to estimate lost payments for the entire 2013–2023 period, as seen in Table 7 below.

Table 7: Estimated Lost TNC Payments to Workers’ Compensation, UI, and PFML (2013–2023) (“Best Estimate” Model)

Year	Number of Drivers40	Lost Workers’ Compensation Payments	Lost UI Payments	Lost PFML Payments	Total41
2013	16,668	$3,812,987	$4,531,828	-	$8,344,815
2014	22,224	$5,083,982	$6,042,438	-	$11,126,420
2015	27,780	$6,354,978	$7,553,047	-	$13,908,025
2016	33,336	$7,625,973	$9,063,657	-	$16,689,630
2017	38,892	$8,896,969	$10,574,266	-	$19,471,235
2018	44,448	$10,167,964	$12,084,875	-	$22,252,840
2019	50,004	$11,438,960	$13,595,485	$7,032,147	$32,066,592
2020	31,305	$7,161,360	$8,511,452	$4,402,475	$20,075,287
2021	54,041	$12,362,467	$14,693,097	$7,599,877	$34,655,441
2022	64,766	$14,815,928	$17,609,095	$8,258,058	$40,683,081
2023	76,187	$17,428,606	$20,714,327	$9,000,018	$47,142,950
Total		$105,150,172	$124,973,567	$36,292,576	$266,416,315

Thus, for the 2013–2023 period, a reasonably conservative estimate (the “best estimate” model) for total lost payments for workers’ compensation, UI, and PFML is $266,416,315. (A low-end estimate for the period, assuming that all drivers in Massachusetts worked 5 hours per week, is $89,191,937; a mid-point estimate, assuming drivers worked 20 hours per week, is $356,767,746; and a high-end estimate, assuming that all drivers worked 40 hours per week, is $713,535,493.)⁴²

34      A linear increase is an increase at a constant rate. Years from 2013 through 2019 are assumed to have seen an increase of 5,556 drivers per year. For 2019, the RMV was able to provide us with only partial data, for 9 months, from April through December. The numbers for the first 3 months were extrapolated from the available data, by assuming that the first 3 months had an average of added TNC drivers equal to that of the subsequent 9 months (4,483 drivers/month).

35.      Using DLM’s conservative estimate of $17,428,606 in lost workers’ compensation payments.

36.      Note that as the intermediate estimates were in 2023 dollars, the entire resulting table is also in 2023 dollars. The reader may convert the US dollar value between any two years with any number of inflation calculators, e.g. the one provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics at https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl.

37.      For this report, the assumption is that the 2023 rates hold steady for all years, as there is no set rate for TNCs.

38.      Jessica Mason & Vasu Reddy, Financing Sustainable Paid Family and Medical Leave Programs, NationalPartnership.org (2023) at p. 7, available at https://nationalpartnership.org/wp-content/uplaods/financing-sustainable-paid-family-medical-leave.pdf.

39.      Note that the PFML Act uses the same income cap as the Social Security Administration’s Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance program.

40.      Note the assumed yearly progression of 5,556 drivers per year through 2019. (Actual data is available only after 2019, with the requirement of TNC vehicle inspections.) As previously noted, this progression relies on an initial starting point of 0 drivers in 2010, an end point of 53,792 drivers in 2019, and an assumption of an increase at a constant rate between 2010 and 2019.

41.      Decimals have been omitted to improve legibility. This explains a resulting small discrepancy in the reported totals.

42.     Appendix A displays detailed calculations for year 2023 estimates. The low, mid, and high estimates for the entire period are not present in Appendix A, but DLM can forward, upon request, an Excel file with all calculations.

Date published:	April 30, 2024