While Massachusetts grew 7.3% from 2010- 2020 and has continued to add residents in the last few years, there are signs that the population growth in the state will slow considerably over the next decade. The number of births in the state has been declining for decades, falling from more than 80,000 per year in 2001 to only 67,900 in 2024. Conversely, there were about 61,100 deaths in 2024, for a “natural increase” of 6,700 persons. This is only one small component of population change. The number of people moving to and from Massachusetts from other states and countries is a much bigger factor in future population growth and housing demand. Massachusetts tends to lose population to other states, with net domestic outmigration of 27,400 in 2024, about equal to the average rate since 2013. International immigration generally more than makes up for that loss to other states. Over the period from 2011 to 2023, an average of 43,600 net international migrants came to Massachusetts annually for education and economic opportunity.
For the baseline projections, EOHLC and its research team assumed continuation of recent age-specific birth and death rates; and assumed migration rates similar to the long-term averages of 27,700 for domestic outmigration and 40,000 for international immigration. Those assumptions result in a “low scenario” population decline of 0.4% from 2025-2035, a loss of about 28,000 residents. While the total population does not change much in this forecast scenario, the age structure of the population does: all age groups under 40 are projected to decline by 3% - 9%, while there is a projected 25% increase in the population age 70 or older. Due to a shrinking working-age population, the resident labor force is projected to decline by 50,000 workers, a loss of 1%.
No population growth does equate to no growth in housing demand. Over the next ten years, Millennial and Gen Z residents—many native to Massachusetts—are projected to form about 493,000 new households. During that same period, the number of Baby Boomers and Silent Generation households are projected to decline by approximately 391,000 as their occupants move away, pass away, or move to other housing situations. After factoring in small changes in Gen X housing needs, the result is a net increase of 73,000 households. Therefore, EOHLC identified a need for an additional 73,000 homes to accommodate demographic demand in a no-growth population scenario.