Population Change Scenarios
EOHLC's partners at UMDI created three population change scenarios for the statewide housing plan, each incorporating different assumptions about domestic and international migration. The middle scenario for Massachusetts projects a 2040 population of just over 7.13 million residents, a slight increase from the 2020 Decennial Census population of 7.05 million. The high scenario projects 7.31 million Massachusetts residents in 2040, while the low scenario anticipates 6.96 million residents in 2040.
Projected Household Change
Based on these population projections, MAPC developed four scenarios for the number of households in 2035. The visualization below represents the scenario used for the Statewide Housing Plan's housing demand projections, with household counts in 2025 and 2035 disaggregated by age. The scenario projects that the number of households led by people under 40 will hold steady between 2035, while households headed by 40- to 54-year-olds will increase. The plan also anticipates a decrease in the number of households led by people between 55 and 70 and an increase in those led by people over 70 as the youngest Baby Boomers reach their retirement years.
Visualizing the change in households between 2025 and 2035 by cohort indicates that the Commonwealth must prepare for substantial growth in the number of households led by members of Generation Z. This group currently leads approximately 68,000 households, most of which include multiple adults and no children (i.e. roommates or couples without children). By 2035, Gen Zers will lead almost 500,000 households in the Commonwealth. Millennials are projected to see a smaller increase, from 924,000 to 1.08 million households. The projections anticipate that the total number of Generation X-led households will remain just over 700,000 households statewide, but with major compositional changes, as the number of Gen X-led households with children under 18 will decline from 259,000 to 65,000 with a corresponding increase in households without children. Households led by Baby Boomers and members of the Silent Generation are projected to decline from 1.15 million to 763,000.
The projected change in households also varies substantially by income. The housing plan scenarios contemplate a net increase of 83,000 households with incomes below $35,000 and of 51,000 households with incomes between $35,001 and $75,000, driven in part by the plan's accounting for meeting the housing needs of families in emergency shelters. There is a smaller anticipated increase among middle-income households with incomes between $75,000 and $125,000 and little anticipated net change among higher-income households.
Housing Unit Demand
Based on these estimates, EOHLC anticipates an additional 222,000 homes are needed to achieve housing abundance statewide by 2035. This includes 160,000 homes to meet the changing unit demand described above, including 103,000 to meet demand driven by changing demographics, 50,000 to meet latent unit demand, and 7,000 to account for every family currently in emergency shelters. An additional 10,000 units are needed to account for expected seasonal conversions of existing stock, while more than 41,000 are needed to achieve healthy vacancy rates in the rental and homeownership markets.
EOHLC and its partners further disaggregated this unit goal across the state's 13 Regional Planning Agency (RPA) areas based on the housing needs of each region. More than half of the unit goal (121,120, or 55%) is attributed to the Metropolitan Area Planning Council (MAPC) which serves 101 municipalities in Greater Boston. This would represent an 8% increase over 2020 baseline housing stock in the MAPC region. Nearly 20,000 of the remaining statewide units are attributed to the Merrimack Valley Planning Commission, where EOHLC anticipates that a 14% increase in housing over the 2020 baseline is necessary to accommodate housing demand.
Data Tables
Disaggregated projections for population, households, and unit demand are represented in the following data tables. Each link triggers an Excel download:
- Population Projections: An Excel file (11,466 rows) of housing plan population projections in five-year increments from 2020-2050 and actual populations from 1990-2020 decennial censuses, disaggregated by region, age, and sex.
- Household Projections: Excel file (10,955 rows) of 2025 and 2035 household projections, disaggregated by region, income, age, and household type.
- Unit Demand: An Excel file (14 rows) of 2025-2035 housing unit demand statewide and in the thirteen Regional Planning Agency areas. Components of housing unit demand are disaggregated in columns.