Many factors beyond housing influence how many people want to live in Massachusetts and where. Some of these factors could drive more households to the state and its communities. For example, a strong economy, gender and reproductive freedom, and a high quality of life could attract and retain even more people than assumed in the middle scenario. Meanwhile, opportunities for fully remote work may drive people to lower cost communities and regions of the state. And despite the current changes in federal immigration policy, Massachusetts may continue to attract international immigrants drawn here by the state’s academic institutions, innovation economy, and international ties, as well as growing climate and political unrest abroad.
To determine how many homes might be needed under a future with such conditions, EOHLC created a “high scenario” that assumes further reductions in domestic outmigration and increased levels of international immigration. Specifically, the scenario assumes that net domestic outmigration is reduced to approximately 15,000 people per year; accounts for the influx of international immigrants that arrived in 2023 and 2024; and forecasts a 28% increase in international immigration as compared to the baseline assumptions. (Details on these assumptions can be found in the methodology section.)
Based on these assumptions, this high scenario projects population growth of 168,000 residents over ten years, an increase of 2.4%. The state’s under-40 population is still projected to decline, but at half the rate anticipated by the no-growth scenario. As a result, the resident labor force is projected to increase by 76,000 workers, or 1.9%.
This scenario also examines what the outcomes might be if remote work enables more people to move to lower-cost regions of the state. Specifically, EOHLC’s research team determined the number of single-family homes that sold for less than $500,000 in each county. The team then selected a portion of the domestic in-migrants and distributed them based on each county’s share of moderately priced homes. As a result, about 25,000 future residents are shifted from Metro Boston to Central and Western Massachusetts.
In total, the higher levels of population growth forecast in the high scenario would result in an additional 39,800 households as compared to the middle scenario. Notably, the largest relative increases are in lower cost regions: Franklin County, Berkshire County, and Pioneer Valley, all of which see an increase of 50% or more in household growth as compared to the middle scenario.