A no-growth scenario is not the only possible future for Massachusetts. As noted elsewhere, Massachusetts loses, on net, roughly 25,000 working-age residents to other states each year, trends that will result in a shrinking labor force if they continue. Labor shortages make it difficult for firms to grow and thrive. And while remote work enables some firms to retain some employees moving out of state, remote work is not conducive to the innovation and entrepreneurship essential to a robust economic future for Massachusetts. Some regions are facing even steeper declines in the working-age population. As a result, the state has an interest in attracting and retaining young workers to help growth the labor force and stem population losses in declining regions. EOHLC analyzed how many homes would be needed to accommodate the population if the state were able to attract and retain more young workers.
To create this scenario, the EOHLC research team looked back at migration rates from 2012 – 2018, when the state was losing fewer young people than it is today. During this period, net domestic outmigration was approximately 17,000 people per year, about 10,700 less than outmigration rates in 2024. Assuming that the state is able return to these lower rates of domestic outmigration, population projections indicate that the population could grow by 0.7% over the next ten years, an increase of about 51,000 residents. (This is referred to in charts as the “middle scenario.”) Notably, the state would see smaller declines in the population under that age of 40, and a stabilization of the resident labor force. Compared to the no-growth scenario, the state would see an additional 33,000 households forming in the next ten years.